Christoph Bluth: Nation ruined by a disastrous dynasty that ignored reality

The Democratic People's Republic of Korea is unusual in that power has been concentrated in the hands of one family, a dynasty that has ruled the country since its creation in 1948. This has prevented the emergence of alternative centres of power such as occurred in other communist states like China and the former Soviet Union which made political and economic reforms possible. It also renders the process of succession very tricky. The possibility of internecine strife at the top and even a civil war cannot be ruled out.

Kim Il-sung, the "Great Leader" of North Korea who died in 1994, took 14 years to prepare his eldest son Kim Jong-il to take over the reins of power. When the time came, the "dear leader" had already been effectively running the country for a number of years and had ensured the support of the armed forces by promoting his supporters and purging his rivals.

Unlike his father, Kim Jong-il completely neglected the issue of succession until very recently. His eldest son Kim Jong-nam, considered by many to be a playboy unsuitable for any serious responsibility, disgraced himself when he tried to enter Japan on a forged passport. It was not until Kim Jong-il suffered a serious illness (believe to be a stroke) in 2008 and the country was temporarily governed by his brother-in-law Jang Seong-taek that it became clear that something had to be done. The youngest son Kim Jong-eun, who was educated at a school in Switzerland, is to be groomed for power.

Today, the first plenary meeting of the Korean Worker's Party for 30 years is to be convened in order to ratify the succession. Kim Jong-eun is to formally assume the leadership of the country in 2012. The internal wrangling over the succession led to a postponement of this meeting that was initially scheduled for early September.

The key problem is his young age (27 years) and his lack of experience. Both military and political figures in the North Korean hierarchy may be sceptical about his ability to lead the country and he has not had the time to establish his power within the North Korean elite. For this reason Kim Jong-il elevated his brother-in-law to the second most powerful position in the country in June 2010.

From this position of power Jang may be able to protect the young Kim against any opposition from other powerful figures, although there may also be the risk that if Kim Jong-il dies, Jang may try to secure the leadership for himself.

The succession occurs at a time of heightened tension between North Korea and the West. The negotiations over North Korea's nuclear programme have been in abeyance for some time after the United Nations censured North Korea for its nuclear test and missile launch.

On March 26, North Korean commandos sunk a South Korean frigate, the Cheonan, resulting in the death of 46 sailors. An international investigation concluded that the sinking was the result of an attack by a North Korean torpedo, the remains of which were recovered and put on public display. As a result, the South Korean government terminated all economic cooperation and all political dialogue with the North (except for the Gaesong industrial complex).

The desperate crisis that North Korea is now facing is of the regime's own making. Not only did it unnecessarily raise tensions with the West when President Obama was seeking to reinvigorate US diplomacy, but it also caused the collapse of all private economic activity that was a lifeline for millions of its citizens.

The country is in the worst state now since the catastrophic famine of the mid-1990s, but the avenues for external support that opened up then may now not be available.

The cost of the survival of the Kim dynasty is that the country remains trapped in international isolation, poverty and unbearable social conditions. It has been ruined by an ideology that ignored reality, giving rise to a brutal regime that has traumatised a generation of its people.

Although the Korean peninsula seems currently stable, we must not be blind to the fact that the situation is extraordinarily dangerous. To survive, North Korea must change and open up to the world. But no-one knows how this can happen without provoking a devastating war or collapsing into anarchy. This is why the continued diplomatic and economic engagement of North Korea remains essential, as much as we would like to see the Kim dynasty pass into history.

Christoph Bluth is professor of politics and international studies at the University of Leeds.