Christoph Bluth: Pakistan poised on brink of total anarchy

Until then, international cricket, in which Pakistan plays such a prominent role, was considered to be off limits.

This atrocity followed the November 2008 attacks in Mumbai by terrorists from Lashkar-e-Taiba, based in Pakistan and previously unofficially supported by the Inter-service Intelligence (ISI) agency. The increasing violence shattered the hopes generated by the end of Pervez Musharraf's presidency in Pakistan.

The dual strategy of the Inter-services Intelligence (ISI) agency to co-operate with the Americans on the one hand by clamping down on the "foreign fighters" (including al-Qaida) and support the Taliban on

the other had begun to stabilise the country.

The monster that the ISI had created was getting out of control. The defeat of Musharraf's efforts to frustrate the Supreme Court and the election of Asif Zardari, husband of the former Prime Minister and leader of the PPP Benazir Bhutto who was assassinated during the election campaign, was seen as a turning point towards a democratic Pakistan, despite past allegations of corruption against Zardari.

In the last two years, Pakistan has witnessed more than 200 suicide attacks. These included strikes in major cities such as Lahore and Peshawar (where the regional headquarters of the ISI were attacked), and even the capital Islamabad. Particularly embarrassing for the Pakistani army was the attack on its headquarters in Rawalpindi, the heart of its power base, where a score of people were killed including a brigadier. Nevertheless, fundamental change has been taking place in Pakistan.

President Zardari uses the power of the presidency and his leadership of the PPP to assert his leadership, reducing the influence of the army

in Pakistan. The success of the Taliban in taking control over parts

of the Swat Valley in Malikand induced a profound shock in the Pakistani leadership and finally convinced them that decisive action was required.

In a determined military operation, the jihadis were expelled from the territory, and subsequently the Pakistani army began its operation against Taliban strongholds in South Waziristan. In his efforts to exert civilian authority over the army, keep the ISI under control and combat the Taliban, Zardari is getting support from the Obama administration. Instead of blaming Pakistan for its lack of resolve, there is quiet diplomacy by Hillary Clinton, Richard Holbrooke and other top representatives to encourage Zardari in his efforts. This has been boosted by $7.5bn in non-military aid over five years.

Although the army leadership and even the ISI have begun to recognise the threat posed by the Taliban, they remain ambivalent. More than 1,500 Taliban were killed by the army, and the chief of the army, General Ashfaq Kayani, remains committed to defeat the Pakistani Taliban.

But only very recently have there been signs that Pakistan is beginning to deal with the Afghan Taliban whose leadership is based in Quetta and Karachi. The arrest of the deputy leader of the Taliban in Afghanistan, Mullah Abdul Gani Baradar, suggests that there has been a shift in strategy, heralding greater co-operation between US and Pakistani intelligence.

Mullah Baradar was the highest in command and only second to Mullah Omar, the spiritual leader of the Taliban who is hiding in Quetta. Mullah Baradar headed the leadership council (shura) of the Afghan Taliban based in Quetta.

Whether Baradar's arrest will have much effect on the ground remains to be seen. It came on the eve of the launch of the Nato operation Moshtarak in Helmand province, and with substantial US reinforcements arriving in the region, the insurgents are coming under increasing pressure.

Does this mean that the Pakistani leadership has finally decided that it has to cease its dealings with the Afghan Taliban? There is no unambiguous answer to this question yet. It has become clear recently that there is a split at the top and that Zardari is coming under increasing pressure from the army leadership about its close relations with the US government. The army leadership is angry about the aid package agreed by the US Congress and the linkage to civilian control over the army.

To make matters worse for the President, the Supreme Court recently struck down the National Reconciliation Ordinance issued by former President Musharraf which protected political leaders from criminal proceedings in relation to corruption offences.

But Zardari vows to fight on, saying that he will prefer to go to prison rather than leave the country. During the last year, he firmly grasped the nettle and moved decisively to assert the authority of his government and strike against the jihadi threat. Whether this change in Pakistan's strategy can be sustained, and a slide into total anarchy can be prevented, remains to be seen.

Christoph Bluth is professor of politics and international studies at the University of Leeds.