Christoph Bluth: The price of revolution is the threat posed by Islamism

THE political tsunami that has swept through Tunisia and Egypt has caught the world by surprise. All the geopolitical certainties that maintained the status quo in the Middle East for decades are suddenly cast aside.

The response of the British government has been rather muted so far. The Foreign Secretary, William Hague, issued a statement saying that the United Kingdom was "in favour of greater freedom and democracy, of a more open and flexible political system, and of serious economic developments", stopping well short of endorsing the demands of the Egyptian protesters for President Mubarak to go and for full-scale democratisation.

The Prime Minister did not issue a statement of his own, but joined in a common statement with the German Chancellor and the French President that was similarly mundane, calling for an unspecified transformation.

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As the United States began to evacuate all its citizens, the Foreign Office limited its travel advice to avoid certain hot spots and British tourists were being offered cheap deals to visit Egyptian resorts. Middle East peace envoy Tony Blair called for a process of "managed change in a stable way".

From the point of view of the UK government, a democratic revolution in Egypt is a Pandora's Box that has the potential to unravel the existing geopolitical structure of the Middle East.

Ever since Mubarak's predecessor Anwar Sadat took the revolutionary step of making peace with Israel 32 years ago, thereby ending the series of wars with Israel that began in 1948, Egypt has been the lynchpin of strategic stability in the region. The price of this stability was an authoritarian regime that suppressed all dissent and in particular kept the Muslim Brotherhood at bay.

The Muslim Brotherhood is fighting to bring about an Islamic revolution in Egypt and the wider Arab world. One of its prominent figures, Ayman al-Zawahiri, left Egypt due to the ruthlessly efficient suppression of the Islamists by the Mubarak regime and became the right hand Osama Bin Laden and the "brain" of al-Qaida.

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The Hamas movement in Palestine is also an off-shoot of the Muslim Brotherhood. The Islamists, which so far constituted the most organised opposition to the Mubarak government, took no part in the recent demonstrations and have also been caught by surprise.

However, there are signs that they are now becoming more active as they buried one of the members killed in the riots. The obvious fear is that what is now a popular uprising against an oppressive regime may turn into an Islamic revolution.

This is essentially was happened in the Iranian revolution of 1978/79. For the British government, the dilemma is that while it cannot be seen to oppose a popular movement towards democracy, the loss of government control in Egypt could lead to dangerous anarchy, destabilise the country entirely and thus enable the Islamists to seize power. This explains the emphasis on an orderly transition in all official statements by the British government. Relations between Egypt and the United Kingdom have come a long way since the Suez debacle in 1956. Not only is Cairo one of Britain's closest partners in the Middle East, but the UK also has significant economic interests at stake.

UK exports to Egypt amount to 900m annually, making Egypt its 37th largest market. More importantly, the UK is Egypt's largest foreign investor. Barclays, HSBC, GSK, BP, BG, Unilever, Vodafone and other British companies have a significant stake in Egypt. The British government is eyeing opportunities in education and training, retail, ICT, oil and gas, engineering, water and railways where British companies would have a significant chance of winning substantial contracts.

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Fortunately it is not very likely that events in Egypt will go along the same path as in Iran. There is no charismatic figure like Ayatollah Khomeini who can inspire the population and the Muslim Brotherhood does not have universal support. The army is disciplined, well-resourced and respected by the Egyptian people and will prevent a complete power vacuum.

However the aspirations for change that have found their expression in the mass demonstrations go further than just the removal of Mubarak. Gradual reform is not going satisfy the opposition. They are looking not for a change of leadership but of regime. There is no obvious figure in the current political elite who is likely to satisfy these demands.

One possible transition leader could be Mohamad ElBaradei, Nobel Laureate and former Director of the International Atomic Energy Agency. ElBaradei has the stature in the international community as a statesman and convincing credentials as a leader for democratic reform.

Unfortunately, he is not that well known in Egypt itself.

Christoph Bluth is professor of politics and international studies at the University of Leeds.