Cuts could trigger crisis

YET more grim news on the economy came as debate intensified over how to bring down Government debt and ensure Britain does not suffer a double-dip recession.

That the arguments were triggered by economists should come as little surprise, recalling George Bernard Shaw's dictum that "if they were laid end to end, they would never reach a conclusion".

But the intervention by 67 of some of the world's most respected economists, backing the Government's stance in delaying dramatic cuts in public spending, is a notable riposte to the earlier call by 20 of their fellows for immediate cuts in Britain's 178bn budget deficit to assuage the worldwide financial markets.

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Yesterday, the latter group argued it would be "positively dangerous" to begin reductions immediately. They said the priority must be to restore robust growth despite the pressure for cuts – particularly since, as one said, it was the markets that triggered the recession in the first place.

Their warning came as the latest figures showed retail sales slumped in January, mainly due to the bad weather. No one disputes that action to tackle the budget deficit must be taken. The question is rather one of timing.

Labour has adopted a "wait and see" approach. The Conservatives firstly insisted immediate cuts should be made but, in the wake of signs the economy is only limping out of recession, have scaled back their plans.

In the end, the decision is a matter of fine judgment. This raises the prospect of whether Chancellor Alistair Darling, or George Osborne, his opposite number, is best placed to pull the economy's levers. Mr Osborne has not yet shown quite how he will restore Britain to long-term growth.

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The Labour team is better regarded abroad than it is at home but that sentiment is likely to be of little import if the international money markets take fright.

But at least it is a decision, with an election pending, that all of us as voters have in our hands.