Geoff Lawler: What Britain will expect of Cameron if the Tories triumph

Maybe this is because Obama started with such high expectations that there was only one way for him to go. Although there is a lesson here for David Cameron, if anything, his problem is the reverse – he needs to create higher expectations to get voters to be sufficiently enthused to cast a positive vote for the Conservatives as their opinion poll lead contracts.

There are three contributory factors to the expectation created for a new President/Prime Minister. First is that you represent change, you are not the party in power now. The fact that he was not George W Bush was one of Obama's strongest cards. Of itself, this did not create great expectations. All he had to do was prove a minimum level of competence, not start too many wars and try to minimise the financial and economic meltdown.

After 13 years of Labour government, the readiness for change is also Cameron's strongest point. The majority of people are fed up with Labour. On top of this, there is widespread public disenchantment with Parliament and Labour is carrying more of the can for this than other parties because the expenses scandal happened on their watch.

On top of all that, Gordon Brown is one of the least popular Prime Ministers ever. Even in the Labour Party, there are those who would agree with the "anyone but Brown" sentiment.

The second factor is the expectation that people create for themselves from their perception of the alternative President / Prime Minister. With Obama, they saw a man of significant charisma, eloquence and appeal – topped with the recognition that being the first black man to make it to the White House was, in itself, a massive achievement.

As a result, US voters heaped on him enormous expectation; that he would be as good as he looked and sounded.

Cameron also has appeal. He is liked more than the Conservative Party is liked according to the polls which is why his face was so prominent in the posters that went up at the start of the year.

He has dragged the Conservative Party, sometimes kicking and screaming (and it still throws the odd tantrum as in Westminster North this month), into the 21st century. By a significant majority, more people approve of him than disapprove. Not even his best friends though, would claim that he is another Obama and he, therefore, does not carry the same weight of expectation.

He is also helped by the general mood of disenchantment with

politicians that not much is expected of any of them at the moment.

The third factor in creating expectations is what is actually promised by the aspiring President/Prime Minister and this is where the biggest downfall can come. That is why they are very careful about offering anything in great detail.

As with Margaret Thatcher in 1979 and Tony Blair in 1997, specific promises were few and far between. Instead of a long list of promises both of these two putative PMs offered instead a direction that would guide the policies they introduced.

Cameron needs to do the same, starting with his party's spring conference this weekend where the Conservative election campaign will step up a gear. This is the area where he needs to create more expectation.

His lead in the polls is built on the fact that he is not Labour, and particularly not Gordon Brown. This is augmented by his personal appeal.

To build on that lead, and ensure a healthy overall majority for the Tories in May, he needs to do more in the next few weeks to gain positive endorsement and seal the deal with the electorate.

Voters do not need to know every action he is going to take or every policy he will introduce. Even if Cameron did announce a raft of pledges that were superficially appealing, few would believe him. He would be damned at the election for raising unrealistic expectations, never mind being damned in a year's time for not achieving them.

With the state of the economy as it is, and the budget deficit at a record level, people generally don't have high expectations for the next couple of years at least.

There is a general acceptance that there is more pain – irrespective of the election's outcome. This, coupled with the general lack of faith in politicians, means that Cameron would have the advantage of starting with a modest level of expectation.

Voters, though, do need to know the direction in which he wants to take the country and believe that they can trust him to make the right decisions to achieve this.

They need to have some hope that having been through the pain, by 2013/2014 things will then start to get better. To avoid winning solely by default, this is the expectation that David Cameron needs to create.

Geoff Lawler was a Conservative MP for Bradford from 1983 to 1987. He now runs The Public Affairs Company, a Leeds-based firm of lobbyists. He writes in a personal capacity.