Indicators point to Russia stepping up its offensive in Ukraine - Patrick Mercer

Even more tellingly, the clutch of new sputniks that Moscow’s launched over the past few weeks are beginning to deliver convincing results. There’s no point in asking why it took the Kremlin almost nine months to achieve parity with the intelligence gathering of NATO satellites which have given Ukraine such an edge, but - astoundingly - they didn't. Now, though, Kiev’s artillery is being attacked very precisely - they’ve lost about five of the deadly, long range rocket systems or HIMARS over the past couple of days - whilst missile and drone attacks against power sources are more accurate and, crucially, much of the bombardment has been redirected to their air defence radars suggesting that the bombers I’ve just mentioned will be able to attack unhindered.

Whilst all this has been going on Ukraine hasn’t been idle. Sadly, though, it seems as though her energy has been directed right where Russia wanted it. Near Luhansk lies the small but heavily fortified town of Bakhmut which is always in the news as Russia dashes her troops against its ramparts. Now, I have long expected the Ukrainian commander, Zalushny, to blunt the invaders there before falling back westward to the next, defensive line, but this hasn’t been allowed by President Zelensky who has been adamant that no more ground will be lost. Yet, whilst Russia has certainly suffered, Kiev’s casualties have been appalling as the cream of her Army has been fed into what is now being called the ‘meat grinder’.

Meanwhile, there have been dreadful tensions in Kiev over the President’s directives but, obediently, Bakhmut has been allowed to act as a battlefield magnet with strategic reserves being sent there until the Army has fallen into two, distinct parts. Protecting the border and quieter parts of the vast frontlines has become the job of the National Defence units - poorly prepared and often elderly conscripts or those recovering from wounds - whilst the NATO trained and equipped Regulars with a significant stiffening of foreign volunteers, are now under the cosh in eastern Donbas.

Moscow’s air and naval bombardment against energy supplies, bridges and railway lines has made these forces’ logistics increasingly difficult which, as far as Surovikin - Russia’s field commander - is concerned is just fine. Now, as you read this Ukrainians will be deep into Orthodox Christmas celebrations and, just as importantly, a serious cold snap is forecast. So, with the vodka flowing freely and the mud finally hard enough to support armoured and logistic vehicles all appears set for President Putin’s boys.

So, what’s the plan? There are many possibilities, but with Ukraine’s Regulars wedged tightly north to south along a 60 mile line either side of Bakhmut, an enveloping thrust from Belgorad in the north seems attractive. There may be a simultaneous assault from the south, perhaps a lightning strike on the capital, a deep skewer from Belarus against NATO supply lines from Poland, maybe all of them - who knows?

Now, it’s sometimes hard to see through the incessant propaganda and ignore the nonsense of Crimea being recaptured by the summer, Russia being on the point of collapse and similar claptrap: the hard reality is that Ukraine’s in a tight corner. But - and it’s a huge but - she can fight hard and effectively for her own land and has demonstrated that not just by the capture of Kharkov and Kherson, but by her extraordinary resilience. As long as Western weapons continue to flow and as long as generals are allowed to make the hard decisions rather than a politician whose background is the TV studio rather than a tank turret, General Surovikin will get a nasty shock.

And Kiev has a trump card - Russian incompetence. On New Year’s Day several hundred young Russians were either killed or wounded in a high rise school turned barracks just a few miles behind the lines near Donetsk. Densely packed in unprotected accommodation within range of HIMARS, they were pinpointed by satellites whilst, to make targeting even easier, the soldiers were ‘phoning home on mobiles which any properly disciplined unit would have confiscated. The subsequent rocket strike devastated up to two battalions of fresh troops who, undoubtedly, were preparing for the offensive.

Patrick Mercer is a former MP for Newark and Army colonel.