Labour on path to power as Reform's by-election performances add to Tory woes: The Yorkshire Post says
While Rishi Sunak may have attempted to downplay his party’s latest defeats in the Wellingborough and Kingswood by-elections as a case of “midterm” elections being traditionally difficult for incumbent Governments, that rather half-hearted defence is undermined by the fact that we are rapidly coming towards the end of this Parliamentary term – a point where polls normally tighten in favour of the governing party.
The Prime Minister did have a pertinent point though when he suggested there is limited enthusiasm for Labour, after lower turnout in both seats than would typically be expected in competitive by-elections.
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Hide AdHowever, one area of major concern for the Conservative party will be the strong performance of the right-wing Reform party, which finished third in both seats. In the case of Kingswood, their candidate’s 2,578 votes were higher than Labour’s winning margin of 2,501 over the Tories. That illustrates the huge electoral danger Reform poses to the Conservatives.
Firstly, the party is clearly splitting the Tory vote – making the path to Labour victories simpler. Unlike the 2019 election, when Nigel Farage’s Brexit Party did not stand candidates in Conservative-held seats, Reform is currently pledging to stand candidates in every constituency.
If Mr Sunak and the Tories decide to tack right on issues like immigration to convince potential Reform voters to stick with them, that will leave Labour a bigger opening with centre-ground voters.
Labour seems on the path to power.
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