Liz Truss will need a clear briefing on the complex Ukraine situation - Patrick Mercer

There are only a few more weeks of campaigning weather available to both sides in the Ukraine and that’s why, I have no doubt, they’re going at it hammer and tongs. I suspect we’re entering the final furlong in this deadly steeplechase; I may be wrong and could easily be writing similar articles in a couple of years’ time, but I sense a real desperation from both sides.

I reckon that the final battle for the Donbas started on Tuesday. Remember, the capture of this entire region is Moscow’s ultimate objective for the ‘Special Military Operation’ and will permit referenda to take place which will not only see the full independence of Luhansk and Donetsk, but also the absorption into Russia proper of the regions along the Azov and Black Sea coasts. Also, should the final, huge redoubts in Slovyansk and Kramatorsk fall, there will be little to stop Russia closing right up to the Dneiper and dominating over a third of Ukraine and capturing most of her industrial capacity and ports.

Well, that’s what Russia wants and if she succeeds, it’ll be hard to see how Kiev can drive them back, even with Western backing. But, it’s clear that the Ukrainian high command have no intention at all of letting that happen.

In late August Ukraine started a mainly infantry counter-attack in Kherson which had been trailed for weeks. To counter it, Russia moved reinforcements into the area and despite great courage and some gains, without air cover and a lack of artillery it looks as though this operation has stalled.

I don’t believe, though, that it was ever intended to be anything more than a feint to distract from a much more muscular push that began a few days ago in the north - just below Kharkov and aimed at the Russians’ strategically vital communication and resupply centre of Izium. A host of armour is making good progress there through a vital flank that may cripple Moscow’s northern pincer which is headed towards the final defensive positions in Donetsk district.

To complicate things further, fresh Russian forces are moving much faster than the snail’s pace to which we’ve become used in central Donbas. Meanwhile, an entirely new outfit - 3rd Army Korps - is barging violently and bloodily northwards, acting as a southern pincer which, if it can link up with the one from the north, will entirely cut off the Ukrainian forces in Donetsk.

In parallel with all these sudden developments there have been a series of daring, amphibious raids by Kiev’s commandos towards the Zaporizhzhia Nuclear Power Plant (NPP) which would put Hollywood to shame. The Russians claim that on three, separate occasions Ukrainian special forces have skimmed across the Dneiper river in attempts to seize the NPP whilst the International Atomic Energy Agency’s team have been inspecting this giant time bomb.

Moscow suggests that all the nighttime raids have been destroyed with shocking casualties whilst Kiev have been tight lipped about it: there’s scarcely been a mention in the Western media, despite global interest in this vital issue.

But is it true? The new prime minister will need to know exactly what’s happened, not just in Zaporizhzhia, but across the whole campaign if she’s to make sensible decisions about British involvement. And if I’m right, if Ukraine’s broke and staggering and if Russia’s being bled dry of men and equipment and been stabbed deeply in the vitals in Crimea and the mainland by Western long range weapons, then the whole war could be approaching a gory conclusion.

Worse still, we may just see a lull whilst both pugilists return to their corners to lick their wounds for the winter before bounding back into the ring for a bit more slugging. Whether I’m right or not, our intelligence and military folk are going to have to level with Ms Truss, peel away the propaganda and brief her honestly about what the autumn holds in Ukraine.

She has, of course, a tricky act to follow. Forgive my cynicism, but Ukraine’s been a remarkably convenient shield from domestic scandals for Mr Johnson. It’s allowed him to channel Churchill, to bluster and brandish a plastic sabre (whilst cutting Britain’s own forces) - a stance Ms Truss has quickly aped.

Now she’s going to have to dial down her own rhetoric and make informed, clinical decisions if Britain is going to return to statesmanship rather than the theatrics of Mr Johnson.

She might like to start by getting her generals ‘on message’. Recently, General Dannatt, a former Chief of the General Staff, an ‘influencer’ often used by the media said, “Russia is not going to lose … They will never go voluntarily. I can’t see the circumstances whereby the Ukrainians will ever be strong enough to throw them out,” adding that Zelensky’s commanders will have to tell him, “You’ve got to start negotiating,” comments very much at odds with Ms Truss’s “We must be prepared for the long haul and double down on our support for Ukraine”.

Well, which is it? The autumn campaign’s going to be brutish, bloody and possibly final with so much of Britain’s well-being and security resting upon its outcome. Ms Truss needs to be unswerving and steely in whichever direction she chooses to take Britain in this crisis and break free from the shadow of Mr Johnson.

Patrick Mercer is a former MP for Newark and Army colonel.