The West will need to show steely resolve in response to Russian aggression against Ukraine - Patrick Mercer

The claim hinged on the fact that just before Russia rolled across the border, President Biden publicly stated, “If Russia invades … there will be no longer a Nord Stream 2. We will bring an end to it.”

Then Hersh wrote that five months ago America executed Biden’s promise by secretly demolishing the pipeline, stopping the lucrative flow of gas from Russia and ensuring that, as winter bit, Europe could not physically backtrack on the energy sanctions she’d imposed on Moscow.

Now, this is serious stuff. Hersh’s credentials are impeccable, but he’s suggesting that America carried out an act of war against a friend - something which could trigger the collapse of both NATO and the West’s war aims in Ukraine.

Whilst there has been an attempt to debunk the story due to the fact that it’s apparently based on one, anonymous source, the sinister media silence that has followed speaks most eloquently for its truth.

You see, this isn’t the work experience kid at play, it’s Sy Hersh who broke the My Lai and Abu Ghraib stories, whose achievements are the global gold standard in investigative journalism. There are even those who suggest that President Biden’s controversial visit to Kiev was only undertaken to distract from this bubbling but still stifled scandal.

The Russian websites, of course, have been gleefully alive with the whole story, although President Putin left it well alone in his long delayed, annual address last Thursday. I listened to the whole 90 minutes and whilst Ukraine was the backdrop to everything he said, only two points really stood out.

First was Russia’s withdrawal from further strategic arms reduction talks with America, whilst the second was rather more nuanced.

Until this speech, Putin’s bloody adventure has always been a ‘Special Military Operation’ - a title that hints at something minor, small scale - but now it’s a war. And along with that comes the tacit expectation that there will be no quick wins, that Russia’s in this for the long haul.

This is underlined by Antony Blinken, the USA’s secretary of state, saying that he believed that China was considering giving weapons and other lethal aid to Russia and that this “would cause a serious problem” for its already difficult relations with America. The probable alliance of two superpowers again suggests that peace isn’t going to break out anytime soon.

An acknowledgment by President Putin that there will be no quick victory has drawn a great deal of criticism from Russian nationalist bloggers who have demanded to see sweeping advances, a formal declaration of war and a series of iron-fisted initiatives which might help restore national prestige. The trouble is, Ukraine has a say in all this and there’s no sign of any lack of resolve in Kiev.

For about a month now, Russian forces have been attacking with increased tempo against targets in the north, east and south of the land that they occupy in Ukraine.

Western critics are saying, though, that they do not have the combat power to push these operations to a decisive conclusion in the short term: Russia’s committed now to the same sort of ‘forever war’ that the Soviets endured (and ultimately lost) in Afghanistan.

The Russian view, though, is rather different. The hawks state that there are about 400,000 troops with attendant aircraft, guns and armoured vehicles which are poised to strike from several directions. A more measured argument, however, says that Russia does not wage war against fellow Slavs in the same way that the West did against Iraq or Afghanistan: there will be no ‘shock and awe’, but more clinical operations to ‘demilitarise’ Ukraine.

Now, if the all enveloping propaganda can be stripped away for a moment, I believe that this means the following. First, Ukraine is reeling from dreadful casualties and a shattered economy and, without more Western aid, she’s very vulnerable.

Second, Russia’s partially recovered from her botched first phase of the operation and now has the men and materiel potentially to overwhelm her enemy. But - and here’s the crux - are the Kremlin’s forces man enough for the job and can Kiev’s people hang on long enough for Western aid in the shape of tanks, aircraft and the like to be effective?

The conclusions seem stark. The next few weeks will show the world whether President Putin has once again mixed up ambition with ability: for my money, I reckon his troops will struggle. What’s certain, though, is that Ukraine will eventually go under unless she’s given more muscle in terms of kit and trained manpower in short order.

For those troops and that gear to be forthcoming, though, the West will need to show steely resolve: there can be no more divisions and hesitancy.

Patrick Mercer is a former MP for Newark and Army colonel.