Tim Montgomerie: It won't be easy, but David Cameron is offering Britain a real alternative

It's all very understandable. Politics has failed in recent years. The economy has gone south. Immigration has run out of control. Anti-social behaviour has mushroomed. And while all this has been happening, too many MPs appear to have been on the make – abusing their expenses.

Politicians have never been top of the popularity league table but they're down in the relegation zone at the moment with bankers and journalists.

It's hard for David Cameron to cut through to voters in this political environment and not just because of the political environment.

The BBC's evening news bulletins have half the viewership that they did when Margaret Thatcher was trying to oust the Labour government of the 1970s. Many people have switched off in every sense. They've given up on politicians and given up on news about politicians.

If you're still with me and haven't switched off from my own argument, I'd like to make the case for giving David Cameron the benefit of your vote. I have two main arguments. The first is to say that the one sure way of "nothing changing" is to re-elect Gordon Brown. The second is to say that – a little bit late in the day – David Cameron is offering a

real alternative.

First, the option of re-electing Brown. It would be a massive triumph of hope over experience to believe that Labour would be different if they have a fourth chance.

We know that Gordon Brown doubled the national debt. We know that the population is heading towards 70 million because they failed to control immigration. We know that the very poor have got even poorer. We know that he sold our gold reserves too cheaply. We know he promised a referendum on the EU Treaty but then reneged on that promise. We know that he sent our soldiers to war without proper equipment – in my mind his most unforgivable failure. We have plenty of evidence to believe that we'd be taking an enormous risk by voting for him.

One political commentator has said it would be like putting the Captain of the Titanic in charge of the lifeboats. Re-electing Gordon Brown would be a nightmare and we'd wake up to that nightmare every day for the next five years.

But I have a second argument and one which is positive. It won't be out of the frying pan into the fire. This election is not a choice between the devil you know and the deep blue sea.

Things would change if David Cameron became Prime Minister. One big change was announced yesterday. The Conservatives will cancel Labour's increase in National Insurance contributions. Seven out of 10 working people would be better off as a result. No one would be worse off.

The Tories have also promised to freeze council tax and to abolish inheritance tax. The Tories can afford to do this because they'll cut out waste. And start running things properly. No one in the Labour Government has run a business. The Tories will bring business-like efficiency to government.

They'll make the kind of hard choices that every family in this country has made since the start of the recession. We've all learnt to do the same things on tighter budgets. At worst, we've cut things out that

were no longer affordable and essential. The public sector must do the same. Labour, because it is in the pockets of the trade unions, won't make the tough choices.

The other explanation for why the Tories will be different is in their attitude to society. Labour has lost the war on drugs. Labour has presided over massive family breakdown. More young people are

unemployed under Labour than in 1997.

All this social failure costs the taxpayer money. David Cameron has a programme to reduce welfare bills and rebuild the family. It's not a pie-in-the-sky programme but one built on successful models from

overseas. Australia's successful welfare-to-work programme and European models of family support. Tory policies will work here because they've already worked abroad.

The Tory plan to cut immigration, improve policing and rebuild schools is similarly rooted in what has already worked in other countries.

I don't pretend the next few years will be easy. The deficit is too big for an easy life. It's like a ball and chain around the UK economy. But if we want to be strong again as a nation we can stick with the people who got us into this mess – or we can vote for a fresh start.

Tim Montgomerie is editor of the ConservativeHome website.