Time to challenge virus scientists over lockdowns – Patrick Mercer

Now, I quite expect many who’ve wrapped the Government’s gospel about them like a stab vest to dismiss me as a dissident, a recusant. But let’s just glance at some compelling facts.

In the spring when the crisis struck, it seemed reasonable to copy the Chinese – where this new virus originated – and lock down hard. But, very quickly, several experts and politicians who’d been preaching life-bending strictures were found to have defied the very advice they’d been preaching.

Most extraordinary was Neil Ferguson, ‘‘Professor Lockdown’’, the man whose deadly forecasts had apparently influenced Boris Johnson’s early decisions. Yet, he flouted the rules to have an assignation with his girlfriend. He says he “made an error of judgment”.

More recently, it’s been claimed that Matt Hancock, the Health Secretary, has been drinking – or even present in a House of Commons bar – after the 10pm curfew.

No matter how their behaviour was explained, it is clear: they simply didn’t believe their own edicts – so why should we?

Restrictions without end have been imposed – cases and deaths at first declined but we were told that the virus had only been ‘‘suppressed’’, that it would return when freedoms were restored and the weather turned. Now here it is, dead on schedule, yet we cower from it as a ‘‘second spike’’ rather than unfinished business.

Meanwhile, the same Mr Hancock likes to tell us that the only measure we know that works is lockdown – but it doesn’t, does it?

The majority of recent restrictions seem to have had no effect at all: they’ve shattered businesses while barely scratching infection levels. That’s part of the reason that Greater Manchester mayor Andy Burnham defied Westminster’s insistence that they should go into Tier 3 before the Government went ahead.

And isn’t it sinister that the Government strong-armed Mr Burnham when local hospitals told us that “Manchester’s ICU occupancy rate is not abnormal for this time of year and is comparable to... October 2019”.

That’s something that’s seldom spelt out – lockdown doesn’t just sunder businesses, it kills people. This week it was revealed by the Office of National Statistics that 26,000 people more than normal died in their own homes, only three per cent of whom were Covid victims. In other words, large numbers of people are perishing because they either can’t get appointments or they’ve been frightened into not asking for them from an NHS which has been told to concentrate simply on Covid. Unforgivably, more than 50,000 children’s operations have been cancelled since March.

But, for my money, the most telling comment has come from the World Health Organisation (WHO). Initially, WHO were heavily in favour: now their spokesman has said: “The only time we believe a lockdown is justified is to buy time to reorganise (and) regroup... we’d rather not do it.”

This begs the question, if WHO has the courage completely to reverse their advice, why can’t others?

Briefly indulge my cynicism. I reckon there are three main influencers of public opinion in this debate – the media, scientists and governments.

While not safe from infection, most of their employees have secure, salaried and pensioned jobs and don’t have to fret about their immediate future.

Perhaps that’s why we get pure despondency from most broadcasters, bad news being delivered with a gleeful dread. Anyone would think that the BBC were revelling in the Prime Minister’s difficulties and were keen to see the Tories ousted and Brexit jeopardised.

Similarly, the scientists would do well to make clear that the measures they’re invoking have dreadful consequences. When Chris Whitty and Patrick Vallance show us charts of predicted infections and fatalities, shouldn’t they balance things by showing diagrams of likely job losses and deaths from cancelled operations caused by their recommendations?

So why can’t politicians have the courage of WHO and change their slavish faith in failure? The First Minster of Wales’s move into a ‘‘firebreak’’ when his country had the lowest infections of UK’s four nations was extraordinary.

And I’ll bet you that Mr Johnson will soon lead the whole country into a ‘‘temporary’’ lockdown as local ones falter. It’s hard for politicians to admit a mistake and change course; it’s simpler to insist on making the same errors – especially when an inquiry looms over them.

The Office of National Statistics’ figures showed that Covid was the 24th most common cause of death in England in August. While the situation, just as expected, has deteriorated since then, we must not continue to be mesmerised by leaders and experts who cannot, or will not, recognise the collateral damage their actions will cause. It might be useful to remember Mark Twain’s words: “It is easier to fool people than to convince them that they have been fooled.”

Patrick Mercer is a former Conservative MP for Newark.

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