Ukraine needs air defence, trained pilots and fighters to hold the line - Patrick Mercer

There are even some who say that this will all be timed to coincide with the first anniversary of the start of President Putin’s ‘Special Military Operation’, but I doubt that’s even a factor. If there’s one thing the Kremlin has learnt over the past twelve, bloody months is to listen to the admirals and generals, not the politicians and functionaries. What may look good as media headlines seldom makes military sense.

Despite fighting like lions, though, since the early autumn Ukraine has been on the backfoot against an increasingly powerful and better led Russia. And what has the West really done to support them apart from making noise and promises? Germany dithered horribly before allowing her Leopard tanks to be sent to help - other nations have plenty of these vehicles, but need Berlin’s permission to release them - and that permission has been painfully slow.

Then the US is sending some complex and gas guzzling Abram tanks, whilst Britain’s anted up fourteen antique Challengers that need months of training - although this did provoke other nations to rummage around their parking lot to see what they could spare. The trouble is, it’s the wrong kit and it’s too late.

All this is set against a recent, very downbeat RAND Corporation report which suggests that all is not well within Kiev, that Western support is faltering and that the best that can be hoped for is a long war and a negotiated settlement. That’s at odds, of course, with President Zelensky’s flying visit to London which extolled his people’s gallantry whilst pleading for more weapons.

No matter how brave, though, Ukrainian manpower has taken a terrible beating from grinding Russian tactics just as Moscow’s fresh troops begin to arrive. What Kiev needs is air defence, trained pilots and fighters and plenty of artillery and shells if they’re going to be able to hold the line - they don’t need ageing, complicated leviathans that will fall victim to anti armour weapons just like Russia’s ill led tanks did outside Kiev last year.

Yet this is exactly what the West has provided: it looks like we’re giving up on Ukraine, but are scratching around for some symbols that will salve our corporate consciences once Kiev goes under. It’s almost as if NATO and the West are trying to dodge the same, painful recriminations that they had to endure once they deserted Afghanistan just over a year ago.

But what’s to be done? Certainly, Russia’s taken casualties and is suffering financially, but some analysts even suggest that the Kremlin believes Ukraine is now done for and the next move is already being planned. Why would so much equipment be flooding into Belarus were an operation along the borders of Poland and Estonia towards the Russian enclave of Kaliningrad not be on the cards? Criminally, over the past years NATO’s shown nothing but weakness. Faltering defence budgets have hollowed out the Alliance’s forces; Iraq and Afghanistan have been debacles; Russia’s run roughshod over Syria and, most recently, Moscow was emboldened even further by the nonsense last November when a missile fell over the Polish border killing three farmers.

Remember? In the middle of the G20 summit last autumn a Russian missile apparently overshot and exploded in Poland directly attacking - it was shrieked - a NATO member and this demanded an instant and punitive military response. For a few hours the war mongers beat their chests and blew their horns until it became clear that the missile was a Ukrainian overshoot.

For those couple of hours all the NATO decision makers were in the same place as the crisis deepened, but what happened? Nothing: there was no call to arms - just hot air and indecision. One thing we can be certain of, though, Russia noticed.

If I’m right and NATO is about to ditch Ukraine (but don’t expect another Kabul like stampede, this will be much more nuanced) there are one or two members of the Alliance who won’t toe the line. During a recent visit, I was struck by the war fever in Poland - there was hardly a house without a Ukrainian flag and refugees were everywhere. Since then Warsaw has mobilised her forces and I’ve been told that training of Kiev’s troops on Polish, Leopard tanks and advanced artillery has been underway for several months.

Patrick Mercer is a former MP for Newark and Army colonel.