Why politicians should not panic over net migration figures - Ryan Shorthouse

It seems we have now got to a political place where a good proportion of the public are inclined to judge the Tories not on what they say they will do in the future, but what they have actually delivered to date after so long in power. It’s not a pretty picture.The Tories are in a particularly tricky position on immigration. Not least because the Office for Budget Responsibility has actually forecast that the tiny bit of economic growth we are experiencing at the moment depends in part on the high levels of immigration we are experiencing.

The Treasury is reported to be resisting many measures proposed by the Home Office that would drive down the number of work and student visas issued, including raising the salary threshold to be eligible for a work visa and reducing the time that foreign students can stay in the UK once they have graduated. The Conservative Government is deeply divided on migration.But, really, politicians should not panic: the spike in net migration figures the UK experienced in 2022 is highly likely to be overwhelmingly temporary.This is because it is primarily driven by three main factors. First, a post-pandemic surge across different types of migrants, with cohorts that would have arrived in previous years instead arriving after Covid-19 restrictions alongside typical cohorts.

Second, the number of Hong Kong – and especially Ukrainian - refugees that arrived in the UK in 2022. In the year when Russia invaded Ukraine, an estimated 114,000 Ukrainian refugees have found sanctuary in this country. Third, a new target by the Department for Education set in 2019 to increase the number of international students: 600,000 by 2030. Well, it was already hit in 2020-21. And thanks to the changing age and origin of more recent cohorts, many more bring dependents: 135,788 visas were granted to student dependents last year, a ninefold increase between 2019 and 2022. There is also a lag between the inflow of these extra student-related visas and their outflow, which we are at the start of.

The vast majority of these refugees and students will eventually return home. What's more, the net migration figures now for the first time also includes asylum seekers, which is an estimated 76,000 in 2022, with those arriving irregularly via small boats markedly increasing in recent years. The Government is determined to reduce their number.Migration does need to be controlled. It is understandable why the government wants to reduce the arrival of dependents of foreign students, which bring less economic value.

But, to be honest, the net migration figures will fall naturally quite significantly in the years ahead.

Ryan Shorthouse is the founder of Bright Blue.