Fear that Le Pen could triumph in French race

THE heavily-built and ageing socialist who has been arrested was being built-up as the French Tony Blair, as the one candidate (in a bitterly divided party) who could win next year’s French presidential election.

Opinion polls were predicting that this man, Dominique Strauss-Kahn, who has just resigned as head of the IMF, would, (under the curious French two stage electoral system) have a one-to-one contest with the dynamic Marine Le Pen, leader of the Right wing Front Nationale. The polls added that no other would-be Socialist candidate would get that far. And the French Socialists were to hold “primaries,” somewhat on the American pattern. These primaries would, it was thought, be won by Strauss-Kahn.

This situation can only be fully understood by the recent growth in support for Le Pen’s FN. She is stylish, lively, smiles a lot, but looks business-like and competent. She has 20 per cent or more of voting intentions. And it is not just her image which has produced this situation.

The President, Nicholas Sarkozy, has failed to bring about enough recovery and voters are drifting from his UMP party to Le Pen.

At the same time she is attracting many workers, and not only socialist ones. The local FN here in Calais claims that many of its members are ex-Communist. Disaffection with Europe is growing. At last year’s VE Day celebrations here in Calais, the European “anthem” (a dirge-like travesty of Beethoven’s Ode to Joy) was played; this year it was wisely left out.

It seems to me likely that Le Pen could get into the second round of elections, as her father once did. She would then face one other candidate. My concern is that if it was a socialist, she would win.