Battleground Yorkshire: A Labour win in Thirsk requires so much to go right ahead of election night

It’s therefore striking that one MRP poll released late last month for Best for Britain put Sir Keir Starmer’s party just over 6 points away from what would be the second biggest upset in the upcoming general election in Yorkshire.

The biggest upset would be to win the only other seat the Tories are predicted to keep under this poll, the Prime Minister’s constituency of Richmond and Northallerton.

“I think the Conservatives have completely taken the country for granted, and they’ve particularly taken the rural communities for granted," said Lisa Barnes, Labour's candidate for the seat

“I think the fact this is considered a safe Tory seat means that they’ve effectively been able to ride roughshod.

“The Tories claim they have a plan for rural Britain but they’ve had 14 years to implement it. If they do, I’ve not seen any sign of that. Voters that I’m speaking to feel very angry and let down.”

Part of this is down to the lack of focus on the countryside in policymaking. Though the focus on growing the economy is centred around cities, the main wealth-drivers in the UK, productivity in rural areas is about 20 per cent less than the national average, costing the economy £43 billion.

Issues such as connectivity and rural crime give Labour a way into these seats, in addition to tapping into the apathy felt by voters.

“I certainly think there is disquiet in the countryside about politics at the moment,” says the NFU’s Richard Pears.

Further hope for Labour comes from the changing face of the seat, with more families relocating to North Yorkshire to enjoy the slower pace of life post-pandemic.

“You’ve got a population shift, you’ve got more and more people who live in urban or suburban environments that have moved to Yorkshire’s market towns,” says Jonathan Roberts from the Country Land and Business Association (CLA).

“A lot of them won’t be so rooted in the local community. A lot of them will be commuting to the big urban areas such as York, Leeds and Newcastle. I know several people who are commuting to Newcastle almost every day from Thirsk alone.”

Despite the changing demographics of the seat, with more liberally-minded city-folk moving in, the seat remains much as it ever was in terms of immigration.

Over 95 per cent of the population identifies as “White British'' with over 18 per cent of the seat identifying as English only when asked at the last census.

Yet, as is often the case with areas with low immigration, concern over immigration is higher, and is one of the major avenues that Reform could use to take votes from the Tories.

The bigger the Conservative majority, the more risk Reform theoretically poses, given disillusioned ex-Tories are their key demographic.

The Best for Britain poll which is very down on the Tory majority here puts Reform on 9.73 per cent of the vote, less than half of its expected share in Barnsley South.

“I’m certainly not complacent,” says Kevin Hollinrake, the local MP, “there’s no doubt that some people think Reform is the right answer.”

“I think people are frustrated with the current illegal immigration situation across the country.”

When asked why his voters are so concerned about immigration, despite not seeing much evidence of it locally, Mr Hollinrake said: “I don't think people just worry about the local area. I think people worry about the country.”

“It's perfectly reasonable to make sure your borders are secure. People aren’t worried just about their backyard.”