Conservative Ben Houchen and Labour's Chris McEwan tied in new Tees Valley mayoral poll

New polling has Conservative Ben Houchen and Labour’s Chris McEwan tied in the race to become Tees Valley mayor.

With less than two weeks until the election on May 2, the survey of 900 people in the Tees Valley has incumbent Ben Houchen and Labour challenger Chris McEwan level at 47 per cent when respondents were asked how they would vote if the election were held tomorrow. The Liberal Democrats’ Simon Thorley is the preferred choice of 6 per cent of respondents.

Without removing “Don’t knows” from the results, both leading candidates remain tied on 35 per cent each, with Simon Thorley on 5 per cent.

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The poll from Redfield & Wilton Strategies suggests 15 per cent of people who voted for Ben Houchen in 2021’s election would now support Chris McEwan. Although turnout was only 34 per cent, Lord Houchen won that election with 73 per cent of the vote.

Tees Valley Mayor Ben Houchen operates plant machinery during a photo call at a ceremony to mark the ground-breaking of the Net Zero Teesside project on September 27, 2023.Tees Valley Mayor Ben Houchen operates plant machinery during a photo call at a ceremony to mark the ground-breaking of the Net Zero Teesside project on September 27, 2023.
Tees Valley Mayor Ben Houchen operates plant machinery during a photo call at a ceremony to mark the ground-breaking of the Net Zero Teesside project on September 27, 2023.

Redfield & Wilton say their polling indicates “the result of this election will not only be close, but will also hinge on how well each candidate performs at getting their voters to turn out.”

Among those who are certain to vote, which was only 32 per cent of respondents, Ben Houchen has a slight lead with 41 per cent ahead of Chris McEwan’s 36 per cent, while Simon Thorley is on 5 per cent.

Ben Houchen’s net approval rating in the poll is at 12 per cent, with 25 per cent in approval and 13 disapproving of his record in office. This compares to Rishi Sunak’s net approval rating in the Tees Valley which stands at 28 per cent disapproval, nearly 40 points behind Lord Houchen.

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Sir Keir Starmer’s approval rating in Tees Valley as leader of the Labour party stands at -1 per cent, with 33 per cent disapproving and 32 per cent in approval of him.

Research published last month by the Centre for Cities revealed the importance of individual candidates in metro mayoral elections ahead of party loyalty. More than half of respondents to their survey said they would vote for the candidate ahead of party in a mayoral election, compared to only 31 per cent who would do so in a general election.

Of those surveyed by Redfield & Wilton who voted for Ben Houchen in 2021, 74 per cent indicated they would vote for him again, while only 47 per cent said they would support the Conservatives in a general election.

Both Ben Houchen and West Midlands Conservative mayor Andy Street have attempted to distance themselves from their party in recent campaigning, with Lord Houchen repeatedly stating via social media that this election “has nothing to do with national Westminster politics.”

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Despite more than £500m of public money being spent on the enormous regeneration project at the former Redcar steelworks site known as Teesworks, 62 per cent of people in the Tees Valley don’t feel like the government has made a clear effort in “levelling up” the area in which they live.

Overall, 36 per cent of people surveyed say the government’s flagship levelling up policy, in which it aims to address regional inequality in the UK, has been a failure in the Tees Valley, while only 12 per cent believe it has been successful.

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