Each person with Omicron estimated to be infecting up to five others, MPs warned

Susan Hopkins told a meeting of the Health and Social Care Committee that the R value of Omicron is estimated to be between 3 and 5. It comes after a record 78,000 Covid cases were confirmed in the UK yesterday, with higher totals expected in the coming days.

An R value of 1 means that on average every person who is infected will infect one other person - meaning that people with Omicron could be infecting between three and five others on the current estimate.

She said: "The overall R value that was reported on the dashboard last week is between 1 and 1.2. However, it should be noted there are two current variants in circulation. One is Delta which is remaining relatively stable in number and the other is Omicron which is increasing very rapidly.

"With a doubling time of every two days, the R value for Omicron is estimated to be much higher, in very broad brush estimates between 3 and 5."

Dr Hopkins told MPs that strong evidence about the severity of Omicron and how it effects hospitalisations will not be available until the week after Christmas at the earliest and more probably, early January.

She earlier told the hearing that the number of confirmed hospital patients with Omicron is 15 but England's chief medical officer Chris Whitty added that the "real number will be much bigger" as work continues on confirming cases.

Prof Whitty said he anticipates the height of the Omicron wave will fall faster than previous Covid-19 peaks.

He said “I think what we will see with this – and I think we are seeing it in South Africa – is that the upswing will be incredibly fast, even if people are taking more cautious actions, as they are.

“That will help slow it down, but it’s still going to be very fast.

“It’ll probably therefore peak really quite fast. My anticipation is it may then come down faster than previous peaks but I wouldn’t want to say that for sure.

“I’m just saying that that is a possibility.”

He said the UK could surpass the daily peak number of people admitted to hospital with Covid-19.

“The peak of just over 4,500, or 4,583 to be exact, people admitted at the absolute peak – it is possible because it is going to be very concentrated… even if it is milder, because it’s concentrated over a short period of time, you could end up with a higher number than that going into hospital on a single day.

“That is entirely possible. It may be less than that. But I’m just saying that is certainly possible.”

Prof Whitty said the route back to a “more normal track” was the booster programme.

It comes after it was suggested that if people were to go to a football stadium this weekend, it should be to get a jab rather than watch a game.

But Prof Whitty said he was not advising against going to football matches.

He told MPs: “What I’m advising people to do is to prioritise, if the most important thing to them in the next 10 days is to go to a football match, that’s the priority for them.”

He added: “What I’m saying is that anybody who has something that really matters to them, concentrate on that thing, and then build out from there, rather than just accepting every invitation and going to every bit of work in person.

“And it’s very much applies also to work situations. Certainly our team are way down in terms of the numbers coming in, that’s quite right. Most other teams are, that I know, and that’s very sensible. Government guidance is work from home if you can, and that absolutely remains the guidance now.”

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