First crack could appear in ‘Blue Wall’ as constituency boundary is reviewed

Nigel Adams, the MP since 2010, will stand down at the next election, with the local association last night choosing their candidate for the next election after young stars of the party, Sebastian Payne and Sam Richards both failed to make the shortlist earlier this week.

The candidate at the next election will face a more difficult task to hold onto the constituency following the boundary review.

Yorkshire Post analysis of electoral wards that have moved in the latest round of changes shows that 17,000 new voters from Leeds will now vote for the next Selby MP, while others from the more Conservative-leaning areas seat will be taken into the newly-formed Wetherby and Easingwold.

John Grogan, the former Selby MP for Labour in 1997 and 2005 when it last won the seat, said the party would be able to capitalise on former Labour voters in the area.

“The boundary changes basically takes out the northern part of the constituency,” he told The Yorkshire Post.

“ I’d have thought that would put it to the edge of what is possible, because Labour has always been stronger in the south of the constituency.

“If you had a swing of 1997 proportions, then I think it would be quite close.”

A Labour source last night confirmed that Selby was “more on its radar” than it was in previous years with a selection process set for a candidate expected to begin within weeks.

However, other seats redrawn in the boundary review have made some areas less of a target for Labour, who saw predictions of a 1997-level landslide victory according to polling ealier this week.

The new Doncaster seat in the region is expected to be less of a target than previously thought.

Labour noted that Doncaster East and Axholme, which will be contested by the current Don Valley Tory MP, Nick Fletcher, is taking in a lot of North Lincolnshire rural Tory wards that it may struggle to make progress in.

Martin Baxter, CEO of Electoral Calculus, noted that in areas such as Selby, Labour is able to try and reconnect with its old electorate.

“With areas of historic strength, and you tend the garden, if the flowers grew before the flowers can grow again,” he said.

However, though the boundary changes have made some seats more tricky for the Conservatives in Yorkshire, popularity is also a factor, with the county is in most circumstances set for a substantial Labour landslide.

“The Conservatives would lose 20 seats in Yorkshire and the Humber because they are currently very unpopular,” he said.

“The job for Rishi Sunak is to try and get some of that back in the next 15 months,” he added.

Using his company’s methodology, he predicted that with the new boundaries, the Tories would only hold on to 15 seats if it managed to get Labour’s lead down to two per cent.

“On those figures, the Conservatives would be almost neck and neck in the House of Commons,” he said

“If they can win 10 seats in Yorkshire they could end up denying Labour a majority, if they can win 15 seats then that would be consistent with Labour and the Conservatives being equal sizes in the House of Commons.

“Yorkshire is tilted a bit more in the Labour direction, but [Sir Keir Starmer] wins big in Yorkshire then they’re looking very happy.

“Anything can happen. A lot of the Conservative low polling in the national opinion polls is not so much direct Conservative to Labour switches but disgruntled Conservatives who are either saying pollsters that they don’t know or they won’t vote.

“They’re sitting on their hands at the moment.”