From Brexit to Trump, the most unpredictable era in history

President Trump has increased worldwide unpredictability

A new survey by UBS Wealth Management revealed that the wealthiest members of society are seriously worried about the global financial system and 88 per cent in Yorkshire see this as a big concern.

Despite this, two in three (66 per cent) Yorkshire millionaires believe that Brexit will have a positive impact on their short-term financial planning, compared with 71 per cent in the UK all together.

Nearly three quarters (72 per cent) of Yorkshire millionaires believe Brexit will have a positive impact on their long-term financial planning, less than the 78 per cent figure across the whole of the UK.

Looking at Brexit’s impact on the UK as a whole rather than their personal circumstances, Yorkshire millionaires are less optimistic than wealthy people elsewhere in the country.

59 per cent of Yorkshire millionaires think Brexit will have a positive impact on the UK in the short term, compared with 70 per cent nationally.

Over the long term, prospects improve. 72 per cent of Yorkshire millionaires believe Brexit will have a positive impact on the UK in the long-term, compared with 75 per cent nationally.

During this period of global financial uncertainty, two thirds (66 per cent) of the UK’s millionaires say they are suffering from information overload. Nearly three quarters (74 per cent) admit short-term distractions and unforeseen events keep getting in the way of their financial plans.

They believe that emotions are now more important than objective facts in shaping public opinion. 79 per cent believe elected governments can only respond to short-term dangers.

Despite all the worries, the number of millionaires who are optimistic about their‘s and the world’s future far outweighs those who think otherwise. According to the UBS Confidence Index, more than a half (54 per cent) of UK millionaires feel optimistic and confident about the future, compared with just 12 per cent who are pessimistic. The remainder do not anticipate a change.

The report found that the UK’s wealthiest people are consistently more optimistic about their own future prospects than they are for the wider economy. 85 per cent say they are confident about their own ability to assess financial risks.

Part of the reason for that confidence is the belief that they can find safe places to invest their money in an uncertain environment.

Nick Tucker, head of UK Domestic, UBS Wealth Management, said: “Some people would argue the world is easier to predict than ever. Britain’s wealthy clearly feel the opposite.

"After a year of Brexit, high profile shocks and global tensions, most believe we live in a very unpredictable age. Political, economic, societal and financial risks are all prominent in people’s minds.

“In response, we see evidence of short-termism creeping in, people reacting to each event as uncertainty grows. Investing on your own doorstep can be tempting in this climate. Holding onto cash can feel safer, even as it erodes your wealth in real terms. Although confidence remains high, neither approach is likely to work well in the long-term.

“In an unpredictable world, it remains best to look to the long-term, focus on your goals and invest in a balanced portfolio across a range of assets and locations.”

UBS Wealth Management recommends three tactics to help deal with unpredictability:

1. Focus on the long term. Avoid responding to short-term events or distractions. Cutting through this noise has never mattered more, because there has never been so much of it. Think about your long-term goals, create a financial plan and stick to it.

2. Maintain a diversified portfolio. Exposure to a broad range of assets and geographies is essential. It helps to avoid the risks of domestic biases. Adding alternative investments also limits shocks from domestic and global uncertainty.

3. Be wary of overestimating the safety of cash. Cash may seem to be attractive, especially in an unpredictable world. But inflation erodes its value, meaning that cash assets can damage your financial health in the long term.