Half of rail commuters 'may not return to trains as working from home continues'

Transport for the North’s new report on the visitor economy in the region said rail usage has recovered to around 40 to 50 per cent of pre-pandemic levels at times after initially falling to just five per cent of previous levels during the first lockdown.

The report said the pandemic is expected to bring about long-term changes to railway usage as commuting demand drops but leisure travel increases.

“Research has identified a desire to continue with some home working following the end of restrictions, which could result in up to a 50 per cent reduction in commuting long term.

“Increased home and flexible working is therefore likely to lead to demand being spread throughout the day, as opposed to pre-pandemic patterns where rail usage had two large peaks in the morning and evening, in line with the timing of most commuter journeys.

“While there is uncertainty surrounding the future shape and volume of commuter journeys on the rail network, leisure travel may become an increasingly important market segment. While restrictions and uncertainties surrounding international travel remain, an increase in UK domestic travel is expected; this presents a significant opportunity for the rail industry to increasingly cater for this diverse but growing market as part of their efforts to re-establish use of rail services.”

It added that travelling for leisure is starting to increase.

“Passenger Footfall Monitoring statistics from Network Rail managed stations have begun to identify a peak in demand between Thursday and Saturday.

“Recovery of demand is particularly strong on Saturdays, with demand recovering to as much as 60-70 per cent of pre-pandemic levels some weeks.”

The report said TransPennine Express, one of the North’s primary train operators, expects that after the vaccine programme “leisure demand will be 14 per cent higher than pre-pandemic, while business travel demand is predicted to be 25 per cent lower, and commuting demand nearly 50 per cent lower”.

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