Labour on course for landslide victory in Wakefield by-election, new polling suggests

Labour is on course to win a landslide victory in this month’s Wakefield by-election, new polling has suggested.

A survey carried out by Survation on behalf of campaigning platform 38 Degrees in the city has given Labour a 23 point lead over the Conservatives in the seat and suggests Keir Starmer’s party are on course to win 56 per cent of the vote, with the Conservatives on just 33 per cent.

More than 500 people living in the constituency were contacted between May 24 and June 1 for the poll.

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Veronica Hawking, Head of Campaigns at 38 Degrees, said: "These results show what should be obvious to Conservative MPs weighing their decision. Boris Johnson has lost the confidence of the public, and no longer represents the electoral asset his allies portray him as. Whatever the result of tonight's vote of confidence, there's no way back from a loss of trust as significance as this.

Labour candidate Simon Lightwood is on course to be Wakefield's next MP, new polling has suggested.Labour candidate Simon Lightwood is on course to be Wakefield's next MP, new polling has suggested.
Labour candidate Simon Lightwood is on course to be Wakefield's next MP, new polling has suggested.

"Wakefield is as 'red-wall' as they come, having voted to leave the EU by over 66 per cent, and having swung from Labour to the Conservatives in 2019. But voters have turned their backs on the Prime Minister, who they feel has let them and the country down over Partygate and failures to level-up. The public are clear in their message, we can't have one rule for them and another for the rest of us."

It follows similar findings this weekend by polling agency JL Partners, which suggested Labour had a 20 point lead in the seat in advance of the vote on June 23.

James Johnson, co-founder of JL Partners and a former Downing Street pollster during Theresa May’s tenure, tweeted that the results indicated that “partygate has crystallised historic concerns about the Tories and turned the people of Wakefield decidedly against them”.

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The key battleground seat is one of tens of constituencies Mr Johnson took from Labour in the so-called Red Wall during the 2019 general election. Wakefield had previously been held by Labour since 1932.

With the Tiverton and Honiton by-election due to be held on the same day as Wakefield, on June 23, the Conservatives face the prospect of losing seats to Labour in the North of England and the Liberal Democrats in the South West.

The by-elections are being held in controversial circumstances, with Tiverton and Honiton vacated by Neil Parish after he admitted to twice watching pornography in the Commons, while former Wakefield incumbent Imran Ahmad Khan quit after being found guilty of sexually assaulting a boy.

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The new Survation polling suggests the Liberal Democrats and Greens will receive just two per cent of the vote each, with Reform UK getting three per cent.

The Yorkshire Party and Britain First are forecast to receive one per cent of the vote each.

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