May survives first major hurdle but more problems lie ahead

Three weeks after her general election gamble spectacularly backfired she remains prime minister and her government has overcome its first major hurdle with the Commons passing the Queen’s Speech.

But while the Conservative ship has been dragged off the rocks it remains badly holed and vulnerable to the stormy seas which lied ahead.

Events ahead of last night’s vote gave a glimpse of what minority government will be like for the Democratic Unionist-backed Conservative administration,

The decision of the Commons speaker to choose a proposed amendment on abortion rights was enough to send ministers scurrying to find a solution on a matter where the Government was likely to face defeat and which would prove uncomfortable for its DUP backers.

Allowing for the fact Sinn Fein MPs do not take their seats and those MPs serving as speaker and deputy speakers, Mrs May only enjoys a majority of 13 over the opposition parties.

That also assumes Conservative MPs will dutifully file through the division lobbies in support of the Government.

It is almost forgotten now that following March’s Budget, when Mrs May had a bigger majority to work with, a backlash from her own MPs was enough to lead to a U-turn on proposed changes to national insurance contributions.

Now the backbenches are filled with MPs angered by the election calamity, many of them further upset by the deal struck with the DUP.

Nicky Morgan’s suggestion yesterday that Mrs May should step down next year was symptomatic of the approach she can expect from those MPs who were elected under David Cameron and now fear they are in a party that has looked and sounded very different under his successor.

Those sentiments will not only cause the Government problems in terms of Commons votes, but will also drive further ongoing speculation about Mrs May’s own future.

The summer recess will provide the Government breathing space and give MPs the chance to rediscover a sense of perspective from beyond the Westminster Village.

But it will also be a chance for Conservative MPs to hear the views of their local associations and allow those who might consider a run at the party leadership the opportunity to take the temperature of colleagues away from prying eyes.

Leadership questions aside, Mrs May and the Government face an uncomfortable return to business in the autumn.

The first crunch point in the Brexit talks will be reached as EU chief negotiator Michel Barnier reports to European leaders on whether he thinks enough progress has been made on the terms of the ‘divorce’ with the UK to allow for discussions to begin over future relations.

Any sign of a hitch will be seized upon by the hard Brexit-supporting wing of her party as making the case for a swift and uncompromising withdrawal while those on the soft Brexit side will call on Mrs May to take a more constructive approach.

Attention will also focus on Chancellor Philip Hammond as he faces the task of putting together his first autumn Budget after he decided last year to switch the annual event to the second half of the year.

Having promised an extra £1bn to Northern Ireland in return for DUP support, Mr Hammond can expect a queue of Conservative MPs, many now on narrow majorities, asking where the cash is for their constituencies.

One hurdle has been overcome, many more lie ahead for this government.