Tories could be set for heavy defeat in Selby by-election, poll suggests

This would be the second largest swing in a by-election contest between the two main parties, second to Dudley in 1994 which signalled Tony Blair’s 1997 election victory.

The polling by JL Partners, commissioned by the campaign group 38 Degrees, put Labour’s Keir Mather on 41 per cent of the vote, ahead of Conservatives’ Claire Holmes on 29 per cent, less than half of the 60 per cent achieved by Nigel Adams before he stood down last month.

However, Tory ministers and MPs last night insisted that the polling did not reflect the positive reception they had seen on the doorstep in the Selby and Ainsty constituency, claiming voters were not switching to Labour despite frustrations they have with the Government.

Dr Tom Lubbock of JL Partners said: "This polling shows that the Conservative vote has collapsed in Selby and Ainsty.

“It is notable that there are still a lot of voters on the fence who supported the Conservatives at the last election, but looking at the data beneath the surface there is no evidence that enough of them will swing back to the party to change the result.

“These undecided voters largely care most about the NHS and Cost of Living – issues where Labour is ranked ahead of the Conservatives in this seat."

The poll of a representative sample of 502 voters in the constituency found that 42 per cent saw the cost of living as the most important factor in deciding who they will vote for.

“In my experience, I've been there a couple of times, and it felt a bit more positive than that,” Stuart Andrew, the culture minister, told The Yorkshire Post.

“I didn't actually sense many people switching. There may be some people feeling a bit frustrated, but they certainly weren't indicating to me that they were switching their vote.

“I've been fighting for marginal seats most of my life and I've seen opinion poll after opinion poll telling me I'm going to lose, but 13 years later, I'm still here.”

Jason McCartney, the Tory MP for Colne Valley, said: “Having been on the doorsteps in Selby I’ve seen first hand how well our excellent local Conservative candidate Claire Holmes is coming across to local people.

“Residents aren’t impressed by Starmer’s flip flopping political opportunism and a shipped in Labour candidate who wants to just keep the Westminster circus going.”

Matthew McGregor, CEO at 38 Degrees, said: “Rishi Sunak’s failure to tackle the cost of living crisis could cost the Tories one of their safest seats.

“These bombshell poll findings will send shockwaves through Conservative ranks about the political cost of their failure to get a grip on the cost of living crisis hitting the public so hard.

“If accurate, this result would be a stunning verdict on the government’s failure to help people in this moment of crisis.”