Tories would lose 24 Yorkshire seats – including Sunak’s – if election held tomorrow, poll shows

Today’s poll, published exclusively by the Yorkshire Post, comes after a similar survey following Liz Truss’ mini budget showed the Conservatives would lose every single Yorkshire seat.

It shows that the Prime Minister still has considerable work to do to recover the reputational harm caused while his predecessor was in power.

The poll - which was carried out for campaign group 38 Degrees by pollsters Survation - used a method known as multi-level regression and post-stratification (MRP) - the same method used to highly-accurately predict the outcome of General Elections at exit polls.

It also asked recipients about the impact of the cost of living on their mental health, with 41 per cent of people saying it has made their mental health worse.

Things are even worse in Rotherham, where 59 per cent say their mental health has been impacted by the crisis - the highest figure in the area.

The impact is widespread, with 42 per cent of people in Yorkshire and the Humber saying they’ve felt unable to heat their home in the last month alone.

Additionally, 16 per cent of people say they’ve been unable to pay their rent at least once in the last six months - while 42 per cent are afraid they won’t be able to pay their rent or mortgage within the next year.

The majority (58 per cent) of people in Yorkshire and the Humber say they do not believe Rishi Sunak and his Government understand the impact the cost of living crisis is having on people.

But this figure actually rises in Mr Sunak’s own Richmond constituency, with 65 per cent of people there saying the Government and PM don’t understand the crisis.

The constituency-level polling shows the PM would lose his seat there by a very narrow margin, of 41.6 per cent (Lab) to 40.5 per cent (Con).

The only seat in the region the Conservatives would hold is Cleethorpes, with a vote share of 43.1 per cent (Con) to 40.1 per cent (Lab).

Labour would win 54 of the 55 seats in Yorkshire and the Humber, the poll found.

Seven former ministers and six former junior ministers would lose their seats.

Matthew McGregor, CEO of 38 Degrees, said: “A Government that has abandoned people in the face of a devastating economic crisis cannot expect to keep the support of the public.

“People across Yorkshire are making their dissatisfaction with the Government’s response to the cost of living crisis known, as our new poll shows.

“At 38 Degrees, we campaign for a Britain that’s fairer for everyone, but there’s nothing fair about a cost of living crisis that has left families unable to heat their homes or feed their kids while energy companies rake in multi-billion pound profits.

“This poll shows Yorkshire has had enough, and won’t take any more excuses from the Government.

“That 65 per cent of his own constituents in Richmond don’t believe the PM and his Government understand the impact the cost of living crisis should set alarm bells ringing for Rishi Sunak.”

Damian Lyons Lowe, Chief Executive of Survation, who conducted the polling said: “These findings again lay bare the extent to which the public is being squeezed by grocery, energy and housing price inflation but also that the public believe the Government is out of touch in terms of even understanding the problems that households currently face.

“Cost of living is the issue that crowds out all others when we ask the public about their issues of importance. If the government is unable to tackle the public’s concerns sufficiently, it is logical to assume that the huge Labour electoral majority implied by this polling will come to pass.”