Wellingborough by-election: PM Rishi Sunak suffers double blow as Labour wins Kingswood and Wellingborough by-elections

Sir Keir Starmer’s party secured 45.8 per cent of the vote in results announced earlier this morning.

Ahead of the by-election result this morning, Reform were facing their first real electoral test which could show the damage they could inflict to the Conservatives’ at the next election.

The party founded by former UKIP and Brexit Party leader Nigel Farage managed 13 per cent of the vote in the seat.

Reform’s result is key in understanding how bad a night the Conservatives could have in Yorkshire.

The main target voters for the party are disillusioned Tory voters, who are often older members of the public and, as with the Brexit Party at the last election, it tends to perform better in areas with a large White British population which are concerned about immigration.

Yorkshire has several of these types of seats, with the majority held by the Conservatives.

If the Tories lose a significant number of voters to Reform, then Labour could be on track for an outside chance of taking these constituencies at the next election, paving the way for a sizeable majority in government.

Before this by-election, Reform were not expected to pick up more than 18 per cent of the vote in any Tory-held Yorkshire seat, according to the latest modelling of potential general election results, and have been polling at around 10 per cent in national opinion polls.

Bridlington and the Wolds (formerly East Yorkshire), Beverley and Holderness, Brigg and Immingham (formerly Cleethorpes), Scarborough and Whitby, and Goole and Pocklington (a new East Yorkshire seat), are five areas with a strong Tory majority that would be impregnable to Labour without Reform outperforming expectations.

The latest MRP polling from Electoral Calculus suggests that Reform would only need to take 1 percentage point of voters from the Tories in Bridlington and the Wolds in addition to its predicted 18 per cent of the vote in order for Labour to win the seat.

Similarly in Brigg and Immingham, and Google and Pocklington, Reform would need to pick up around 4 percentage points and 3 percentage points respectively from the Tory vote in order to see Sir Keir Starmer’s party pick up the seat at the next election under this modelling.

Under Electoral Calculus’ analysis, both Beverley and Holderness and Scarborough and Whitby would be set to fall to Labour if Reform polls at around 15 per cent at the next election.

The reason Reform is such a threat in these seats is because of the large number of Conservative voters, who are the party’s target audience, in addition to above-average number of over-65s and White British constituents among the electorate.

On average there are around 18 per cent of the electorate in a given constituency who are over the age of 65.

In these five seats it is between 26 and 30 per cent of potential voters.

Similarly the average number of White British voters in England and Wales in a seat is around 74 per cent.

In these five seats it is between 92 and 96 per cent.

A good performance in these seats from Reform, with the party left with plenty of time to pick up more voters before polling day, could see a bad night for the Conservatives in Yorkshire turn into a nightmare.