Welcome words mask real issue

The British economy teeters desperately on the brink of recession. Its biggest trading partner, Europe, stands on the brink of monetary collapse. Even within his own cabinet, his Defence Secretary stands perilously close to the edge.

That the Prime Minister has chosen this moment to make his first major address on immigration in months will add fuel to the fire of critics who see him as a PR man first and a PM second.

What better way to distract from this perfect storm than a tub-thumping speech on the most emotive of topics?

Such cynicism would be perhaps a little unfair.

The large numbers of people concerned about the wave of immigration which swept in under Labour will be pleased to see the Prime Minister announcing much-needed new measures for both legal and illegal arrivals. The clampdown on forced marriages, in particular, is welcome.

But as Mr Cameron himself acknowledges, voters are well used to hearing politicians talking tough on this subject. And as he is now discovering, the realities of migration flows can be a complicated affair.

Net immigration has actually risen under this Government, the collapse in the pound sparking a slump in the number of people moving abroad. As in so many other areas, the economy trumps the Prime Minister’s best intentions.

Mr Cameron points to his new cap on foreign workers from outside the EU, which has been under-subscribed thus far. This, he suggests, show the scheme is working.

Perhaps. But it is equally likely to reflect the fact companies are simply not hiring at the moment, neither from outside Britain nor within it. It must also be remembered that non-EU immigration is only one part of the picture. The majority of immigration over recent times has come from within the EU – something the PM can do little about.

His speech yesterday almost touched upon this point, alluding to eastern European workers who have arrived with a powerful work ethic to take manual jobs ahead of their demoralised British counterparts.

But his claim that this is now being addressed by fixing “problems in our education system” looks laughably hollow when the number of out-of-work young people is expected to rise above one million this week, for the first time since the early 1990s.

Most of these young people are not being failed by high immigration, nor by poor education. They are being failed by the lack of a real plan for new jobs; new apprenticeships; growth.

For Mr Cameron, once again, all roads lead back to the economy.