Numbers hide Leeds United reality as unbeaten Championship run finally comes to an end

Leeds United's 2-1 defeat at Coventry City was a good example of why you should not. The metrics showed why they ought to have won but they did not deserve to.

It was a first Championship defeat of 2024 – dropping them out of the automatic promotion spots with five matches left rather than going top but a third below-par game in a row.

Not playing well and taking points – one from Watford, three v Hull City – is essential in a 46-game campaign. Do it too often in succession and it will catch up with you.

Hit-and-miss centre-forwards are perhaps the biggest weakness of a team which does not have many. Joel Piroe did both but Patrick Bamford only managed the latter.

Normally a tight defence and midfield roadblock minimises the load but even with Ilia Gruev back from injury, Coventry scored twice on the counter-attack.

"We were not effective in the decisive duels at both ends of the pitch," opined manager Daniel Farke.

Buoyed by Ipswich Town's recent (earnt) luck with late goals running out in defeat at Norwich City, plus the return of Gruev to the XI and Willy Gnotno and Connor Roberts to the bench, Leeds made a start almost as bright as their away kit.

But the first goal rattled them and although they eventually got their poise back, the pizzazz was never forthcoming.

You cannot beat Coventry without it, certainly not when cheered on by their biggest crowd at a rented stadium which has caused them so much grief. If their performance was a worry for Leeds, it will also have been for Hull and Middlesbrough, hoping the drain of a Wembley FA Cup semi-final this month over-rides the quality that got them there.

Before Leeds' promise amounted to anything, the Sky Blues pounced, breaking from their defensive third and forcing a corner when Illan Meslier saved from Haji Wright.

Meslier and co lacked authority, allowing the ball to bounce around in the wind. Bobby Thomas hooked it to ex-Barnsley team-mate Liam Kitching, who headed it to Ellis Simms for his 14th goal in 11 games.

Soon Meslier had to save with his feet from Callum O'Hare and the Championship’s most composed, secure defence looked anything but.

There were problems at the other end too.

Bamford scores amazing goals – like at Peterborough – and poacher's ones – Sheffield Wednesday away – but you cannot bank on him.

Junior Firpo's 28th-minute cross was the stuff of No 9s’ dreams, yet Bamford could not convert.

"If he put his right foot in it probably would have been a goal," said former centre-forward Farke wistfully.

He was not the only culprit.

Minutes after Leeds replaced the lacklustre Glen Kamara with Roberts, Coventry scored again.

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Joe Rodon won Crysencio Summerville's free-kick but Coventry claimed the second ball and sent birthday boy Josh Eccles sprinting down the right to curl a centre as inviting as Firpo's. Wright also went with the wrong foot but scored.

There were 40 minutes – plus added time – left but hosts already ticked off for timewasting and enjoying counter-attacking were not about to buck the trend of Leeds possession, even if manager Mark Robins insisted it was unintentional.

On came the Leeds cavalry, Mateo Joseph for Bamford, Georginio Rutter pushed alongside him and Piroe into a three-man line behind.

Summerville forced a save from a tight angle then had another shot which may or may not have gone in but for Jake Bidwell’s brilliant diving header. If not, Rutter had a tap-in.

Piroe's 76th-minute goal was as understated as his shirt was loud, controlling and poking in with minimal backlift then reverting to 2024 type. A one-two with Joseph ended with a strike he did not get hold of and he shot over in the 87th minute.

But the worst was in the third added minute, firing a chance at the goalkeeper which the pre-Christmas Piroe would have gobbled.

It was another shot on target, more onto the expected goals tally for the pseudo-scientific guessworkers. In reality, Leeds needed more.

If hiding poor performances with ill-deserved points is a skill, bouncing back from defeats is another.

Tuesday's visit of Sunderland as Ipswich twiddle their thumbs until Wednesday can add another zig-zag to a title/promotion race which just cannot decide where it is going.

Coventry City: Collins; van Ewijk, Thomas, Kitching, Bidwell; Eccles, Sheaf; Wright (Dasilva 89), O'Hare (Torp 76), Palmer (Latibeaudiere 66); Simms. Unused substitutes: Binks, Kelly, Wilson, Tavares, Lusala, Andrews.

Leeds United: Meslier; Gray, Rodon, Ampadu, Firpo; Gruev (Piroe 66), Kamara (Roberts HT); James (Gnonto 84), Rutter, Summerville; Bamford (Joseph 66). Unused substitutes: Cresswell, Cooper, Anthony, Byram, Darlow.

Referee: T Nield (Huddersfield).