Premier League predictions computer makes surprise forecasts for Chelsea, Newcastle United and Everton while victories expected for Man United, Liverpool and Arsenal

The Premier League returns this weekend with Yorkshire’s sole top-flight representative in Leeds United facing a tough assignment against Liverpool on Saturday night.

Both sides lost their most recent league outings as the Reds were beaten 1-0 at Nottingham Forest while Jesse Marsch’s side suffered a 3-2 defeat at home to Fulham.

Liverpool bounced back with a 3-0 win over Ajax in the Champions League on Wednesday evening and data experts are tipping Jurgen Klopp’s side to make it two wins in a row when they welcome Leeds to Anfield.

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Data boffins at FiveThirtyEight make their predictions by using their ratings for each team and then simulating fixtures thousands of times to produce the likelihood of every possible outcome for each game.

The probability of a Liverpool win over Leeds is rated at 78 per cent while wins are expected for the division’s top two sides Man City and Arsenal when they take on Leicester City and Nottingham Forest respectively.

FiveThirtyEight have crunched the numbers to predict the most likely outcome in every game this weekend. See their predictions below...

FiveThirtyEight’s Premier League predictions

Match Home win Draw Away win
Leicester v Man City 11% 16% 73%
Newcastle v Aston Villa 51% 25% 24%
Crystal Palace v Southampton 48% 26% 26%
Bournemouth v Tottenham 17% 22% 61%
Brighton v Chelsea 33% 26% 41%
Brentford v Wolves 46% 26% 29%
Fulham v Everton 41% 26% 34%
Liverpool v Leeds 78% 14% 8%
Arsenal v Nottingham Forest 76% 16% 7%
Man United v West Ham 54% 24% 22%