Premier League predictions computer forecasts break-up of 'Bix Six' of Manchester United, Manchester City, Liverpool, Chelsea, Tottenham Hotspur and Arsenal

Data experts are predicting a big shake-up in English football this season with Liverpool missing out on Champions League qualification, and Chelsea and perhaps Tottenham Hotspur not even making the Europa League.

FiveThirtyEight are predicting Brighton and Hove Albion will gatecrash this season's top six, with Newcastle United breaking into the top four.

They also think Arsenal will win their first title since 2004.

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Their latest predictions after the weekend games have Chelsea finishing the season above west London rivals Fulham and Brentford, but eighth place would see them miss out on European football entirely next season unless they won the Champions League in June.

UNDER THREAT: Chelsea and Tottenham Hotspur are both tipped to miss out on the Premier League's top six at the end of the seasonUNDER THREAT: Chelsea and Tottenham Hotspur are both tipped to miss out on the Premier League's top six at the end of the season
UNDER THREAT: Chelsea and Tottenham Hotspur are both tipped to miss out on the Premier League's top six at the end of the season

The Premier League gets four Champions League places which the number-crunchers think will go to Arsenal, Manchester City, Manchester United and Newcastle, in that order.

The two Europa League spaces go first to the FA Cup and League Cup winners, but then to the next highest-placed teams in the league if those competitions are won by clubs who have qualified for the Champions League.

Position Club Points
1 Arsenal 85
2 Manchester City 82
3 Manchester United 74
4 Newcastle United 70
5 Liverpool 66
6 Brighton and Hove Albion 64
7 Tottenham Hotspur 63
8 Chelsea 58
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Manchester United and Newcastle are in the League Cup semi-finals and the Red Devils are still in the FA Cup, along with their city neighbours and Arsenal – drawn against one another in round four.

The team finishing seventh – predicted to be Spurs – will play in the Europa Conference League if they have not qualified for a higher competition via their cup performances.

Liverpool are currently ninth but are predicted to finish fifth, a place above Brighton.

Chelsea are reckoned to be on course for eighth. They are due to face Borussia Dortmund in the last 16 of the Champions League.

Leeds United are tipped to finish 13th, six points above the relegation zone.