Premier League top-four race: Predictions Computer on whether Newcastle United can beat Manchester United, Liverpool, Tottenham Hotspur and Chelsea to Champions League qualification

Arsenal and Manchester City traded places at the top of the Premier League this weekend and Newcastle United emerged as contenders. But who will win the title and who will qualify for Europe?
By Nick Westby
Published 31st Oct 2022, 10:23 BST
Updated 31st Oct 2022, 16:40 BST

Following the latest round of games, data experts at FiveThirtyEight have predicted how the final Premier League table will look.

Using their ratings for each team, they simulate seasons thousands of times to produce their prediction for each side’s final points tally and league position.

Hide Ad
Hide Ad

With 12 rounds of Premier League action played, here’s who is predicted to win the title, qualify for the Champions League and the Europa League.

Newcastle United's Miguel Almiron (left) celebrates scoring their side's fourth goal of the game with team-mate Callum Wilson during the during the 4-0 Premier League win over Aston Villa (Picture: Owen Humphreys/PA)Newcastle United's Miguel Almiron (left) celebrates scoring their side's fourth goal of the game with team-mate Callum Wilson during the during the 4-0 Premier League win over Aston Villa (Picture: Owen Humphreys/PA)
Newcastle United's Miguel Almiron (left) celebrates scoring their side's fourth goal of the game with team-mate Callum Wilson during the during the 4-0 Premier League win over Aston Villa (Picture: Owen Humphreys/PA)

Over the final weekend of October, a Erling Haaland-less Manchester City took top spot on Saturday when beating Leicester City 1-0, before Arsenal returned to the top of the Premier League in style on Sunday as forgotten man Reiss Nelson came off the bench for the injured Bukayo Saka to score a brace in a 5-0 win against Nottingham Forest.

Marcus Rashford’s 100th goal for Manchester United sealed a 1-0 home win against West Ham and kept them hot on the heels of the Premier League’s top four.

And new entrants into that top four are Newcastle United, who thrashed Aston Villa 4-0.

Can Eddie Howe’s Magpies keep pace with the big hitters?

Arsenal's Martin Odegaard celebrates at the end of the Premier League victory over Nottingham Forest (Picture: PA)Arsenal's Martin Odegaard celebrates at the end of the Premier League victory over Nottingham Forest (Picture: PA)
Arsenal's Martin Odegaard celebrates at the end of the Premier League victory over Nottingham Forest (Picture: PA)

Here’s what data experts FiveThirtyEight make of it.

And here’s what they think of the relegation battle.

Premier League top 10 at the end of the 2022/23 season:

Top four qualify for the Champions League

Positions 5th and 6th qualify for the Europa League

7th place qualifies for the Conference League

Hide Ad
Hide Ad
Team Goal Difference Points
1. Manchester City 66 88
2, Arsenal 35 77
3. Manchester United 17 69
4. Liverpool 34

67
5. Tottenham 19 67
6. Chelsea 16 66
7. Newcastle United 22 64
8. Brighton 14 60
9. West Ham -1 49
10. Crystal Palace -10 47
Related topics:Newcastle UnitedPremier LeagueArsenalChampions LeagueManchester City