Sheffield United and Middlesbrough's Championship promotion race analysed: Who has the edge?

Only a month ago, it look like the point of interest was a title battle between Sheffield United and Burnley, but the favourites now look to be over the hills and far away with the title almost certainly going to Turf Moor.

As Paul Heckingbottom's Blades have faltered, Michael Carrick's Middlesbrough have been relentless in their chase, kick-starting their rivals' wobble with a 3-1 win at Bramall Lane in February.

Now, approaching a potentially pivotal week, what was looking a foregone conclusion has turned into a tight race, so who has the edge?

We analyse the race from different perspectives.

THE CUSHION

Sheffield United sit four points above Middlesbrough from the same games played. The Blades' goal difference is only one better and Boro have scored eight more.

When the sides kicked off at Bramall Lane on February 15, the gap was 10 points and the Blades had a game in hand.

Heckingbottom's side are falling back on some of the credit built up in an excellent start to the season but it is Carrick's men who have the momentum.

THE RUN-IN

Both sides still have Norwich, Burnley, Bristol City, Huddersfield Town and Preston North End to play, albeit there are differences whether they are home and away.

So best to concentrate on the other five fixtures for each.

For the Blades, two of theirs are against sides who, at least now, still have realistic play-off hopes in Sunderland and West Bromwich Albion. At this stage, Wigan Athletic, Cardiff City and Birmingham City are fighting relegation.

For Boro, Luton Town and Coventry City are both still in contention for the play-offs at the moment, whereas Rotherham United are in a relegation battle.

But Stoke City and Hull City look safe from relegation but too far adrift of the play-offs to have much to play for. On the one hand it gives them a freedom but on the other less incentive to fight out tight games.

Sheffield United's 10 games are split equally between home and away, whereas Boro have six at the Riverside, four on their travels. That said, the Blades have the better points-per-game record away from home, whereas Boro's is a tiny fraction better at home.

THIS WEEK

This week sees the Teessiders play twice whereas Sheffield United are in FA Cup action at the weekend.

Boro play first in midweek, at home to Stoke City, and if they can win that game, it opens up the possibility they could go into the international break in the top two, putting pressure on the Blades for their trip to Sunderland on Wednesday.

THE BREAK

This has to come at a better time for Sheffield United than Middlesbrough. The Championship goes on hold for international football after this week, with neither side in action again until April.

For the Blades it could be a chance to regroup and reset, for Boro the challenge will be to try to keep their momentum going without football and with their squad spread far and wide.

Sheffield United could also get a lift by beating Blackburn Rovers on Sunday, which would set up an FA Cup semi-final at Wembley. The flip-side is an extra game and their trip to Neil Warnock's Huddersfield Town being moved – quite possibly to the final week of the season.

THE FORM

Whichever way you look at it, this is firmly in Boro's favour.

They have won five of the last six in the Championship, drawing one. It is the best record in the division over that period.

Sheffield United have lost four in that time, their six points putting them 17th in the form table.

Had the league started on the day Carrick took over as manager at the Riverside, the two sides would be the other way around, Boro second, five points ahead of the third-placed Blades after 20 matches.

Boro's Chuba Akpom has scored nine goals in his last eight matches, whereas Iliman Ndiaye, Oli McBurnie and Billy Sharp each have three in all competitions since the World Cup.

THE PSYCHOLOGY

Sheffield United's is an experienced squad, the core of which is full of players who won promotion to the Premier League in 2019. Heckingbottom has promotion-winning experience as a manager, albeit a division lower down with Barnsley.

That said, cracks have started to show, with Heckingbottom’s red card from the Boro game and veteran Sharp’s unwise comments about referee Leigh Doughty after an FA Cup win over Wrexham.

All this is new to Carrick, who has plenty of experience of competing at the top end of the table as a player, but none as a manager. He has some to call upon in his squad, but not as much. There are pluses to that, but probably more minuses.

For Boro, the pressure has largely been off so far. When Carrick took over, the job was to save the team from relegation, whereas the expectation has always been on the parachute-assisted Blades to get back into the Premier League this season.

If Boro were to get into the top two at any point, it will be interesting to see how they cope with the pressure of being the hunted, because they are doing a brilliant job as hunters.

It promises to be a far more fascinating race than it was shaping up to be even a few weeks ago.