Sheffield Wednesday v Peterborough United: Owls are up against history, psychology and tactics in League One play-off semi-final second leg

With finals at Wembley, the Football League play-offs are supposed to be about fairytales coming true but the Owls coming back from 4-0 down to Peterborough United to book a trip to the arch on Thursday would be a real shaggy dog story.

In 216 completed two-legged semi-finals since the play-offs began in 1987 no team has overturned a three-goal first-leg deficit. Only five have even come from two back. That said, only four teams – including Barnsley in the 2000 Championship edition – have enjoyed a headstart this big or bigger.

Even Lazarus would say winning from 4-0 down sounds a bit much.

In 1996 Bradford City won promotion to the second tier despite losing 2-0 at home to Blackpool in their semi-final first leg. A 3-0 win at Bloomfield Road and a 1-0 victory over Notts County saw to that.

Northampton Town repeated that turnaround in 2020’s League Two semi-finals and came from 3-1 down to beat Bristol Rovers in their 1998 home leg. On both occasions they finished the job at Wembley.

Preston North End were unable to get out of the bottom division after turning a 2-0 home defeat into a 4-3 aggregate win over Torquay United in 1994, but the momentum from beating Nottingham Forest 5-2 after extra-time having lost 2-0 at Huish Park propelled Yeovil Town to their only Championship season.

It is a pretty glorious history of comebacks, but a very short one, and those teams were scaling Ben Nevis, not Everest.

When even a bemused Darren Moore admits his side face "an uphill task", the odds are wafer thin.

Nineteen points better than Peterborough over a 46-game League One season, perhaps under different circumstances the Owls might be capable of a 4-0 or 5-1 home win (away goals are irrelevant) to take the tie to a penalty shoot-out.

But this is different.

Unbeaten in 23 league matches earlier this term, breaking the club's clean sheet record for a season in February, and with a 20-goal striker in Michael Smith, Wednesday are a very good League One team.

But when it comes to the crunch, they crumble.

Three points clear with two games in hand in mid-March, the title was theirs for the taking. They finished third, dragged down by defeat to out-of-their-depth Forest Green.

Once it was clear Plymouth Argyle and Ipswich Town were going up automatically instead, they started winning again.

When teams meet twice in less than a week, psychology looms large, and the Owls' must be ruined.

Peterborough were not much better, probably not better at all, in Friday's first half at London Road but when they made mistakes, Wednesday failed to punish them and Posh moved on. When the Owls did, they went to pieces.

When luck went against them – though it might have just been the footballing gods punishing the crime of a defender turning his back on a shot – with Joe Ward's deflected strike, they did not console themselves they would be paid back later, they wallowed in it.

The damage went beyond the scoreboard.

"We're f***ing s***" sang away fans who gave the players short shrift when they apologetically went to thank them at full-time.

Smith, who allowed Will Norris to save when he caught the Posh defence dozing at 0-0, was hauled off at 3-0, not deemed good enough on the night even with goals needed.

"He had a few chances," said manager Moore. "I just didn't think it was quite running right for him. He wasn't the only one."

Goalkeeper Cameron Dawson must deal with letting the opening goal squirm through his body.

A sparser Hillsborough crowd than ticket sales before Friday pointed to will no doubt desperately try to get behind their players to push them to what has been the club's target since missing out to Sunderland in last season's play-offs.

But if they concede or even just make a bad mistake, keeping a lid on the fizzing frustrations might be very difficult.

It will need strong characters and Wednesday's last couple of months does not point to them.

As low as Wednesday are feeling, a Posh side only let into the play-offs by the Owls' final-day victory over Derby County will be on a high.

They showed how potent they can be on the counter-attack through the pace of wingers Kwame Poku – scorer of the third goal – and Ephron Mason-Clark, its maker.

"After the third goal they got the space and you're eulogising about them," reflected Moore. "When the game opened up they looked more effective."

Wednesday will have no choice but to open up again.

If they can win through to Wembley they deserve all the praise they get and more. But rarely has a two-letter word sounded so big.