The numbers which explain why Rotherham United & Huddersfield Town can stay up in second-tier

IT CAN be dangerous to make predictions, more especially where the capricious Championship is concerned.

Yet when discussion turns to Rotherham United and Huddersfield Town's latest survival missions, the statistics surely indicate this.Namely, that their vital numbers on home soil have a pretty strong chance of determining their fate.

More especially given that the pair of them have won a combined total of just four league matches out of 33 on the road so far in 2022-23.

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Here, there is some hope at least for both these Yorkshire protagonists amid a safety battle where just five points currently separate the fifth-from-bottom Millers, in 20th, and basement club Wigan - the club who Rotherham incidentally visit on the last day of the season.

Neil Warnock.Neil Warnock.
Neil Warnock.

Plenty can happen before that - and will.

Rotherham secured a timely victory over Sunderland in midweek, their first league win in six games.

After 33 games, their tally of 36 points is four more than from the same amount of fixtures in their relegation season of 2020-21 and seven more than at the corresponding stage of 2018-19, when United also went down from the second-tier.

All well and good, then. Yet the main number of consequence is maybe elsewhere.

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Matt Taylor. Picture: Jonathan Gawthorpe.Matt Taylor. Picture: Jonathan Gawthorpe.
Matt Taylor. Picture: Jonathan Gawthorpe.

The South Yorkshire outfit have scored 26 goals so far in 16 home matches. It is the same amount as third-placed Middlesbrough and more than a host of other play-off candidates including Millwall, Blackburn, Luton, Watford, Sunderland, West Brom and Norwich.

Only the top two of Burnley and Sheffield United have scored more than the Millers, who have seven of their last 13 games at home. Their forward options in comparison to those two aforesaid unsuccessful campaigns are better too.

For Neil Warnock's Huddersfield, there is also optimism on the home front, but for a different reason.

In a pretty forgettable season thus far, the one area where the Terriers' numbers stack up is in their goals against column at home - 16 in 16 games thus far, the same amount as the second-placed Blades.

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Just six clubs have better defensive records in front of their own supporters.

Should Town maintain that general defensive stoutness and become a touch more bold, imaginative and clinical in attack, then you suspect they might just be in business.

Warnock misses nothing and will know this.

His decision to play Joe Hungbo as a central striker in the win over Birmingham seemed left-field, but reaped an instant reward by way of the loanee's first Town goal.

Handing a key cameo from the bench to Tyreece Simpson, a powerful direct runner who possesses qualities to trouble defenders, also carried weight. It was the forward's first league appearance of 2023.

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The sight of an old favourite in Danny Ward doing his bit for his old gaffer was more predictable. And no less important.

Away wins for both Town and the Millers will be like gold dust and Warnock claimed some precious ones in his 'Great Escape' at Rotherham in 2015-16. Expect the real action to come at home.