World Cup predictions computer tips England to beat France and rates Three Lions' chances of glory in Qatar

England reached the last four in Russia in 2018 after beating Colombia on penalties in the round of 16 before a 2-0 victory over Sweden in the quarter-finals. Saturday’s meeting with France, who lifted the trophy four years ago, is one of the toughest tests Southgate has faced as manager at a major tournament.

With the last-eight action kicking off on Friday, FiveThirtyEight have crunched the numbers to give their verdicts on which teams will make up the semi-finals.

The number crunchers on the website produce their ratings for each team, estimating each country’s attacking threat and their defensive nous. The website states: “In our system, every team has an offensive rating that represents the number of goals that it would be expected to score against an average team on a neutral field and a defensive rating that represents the number of goals that it would be expected to concede.”

Simulations are then produced to decide probable match outcomes as well as the entire tournament. England have been given a 52 per cent likelihood of advancing to the semi-finals compared to a 48 per cent chance for France.

Southgate’s side have been rated as 14 per cent likely to win the whole tournament and win their first World Cup since 1966. Raheem Sterling returned to the England camp ahead of the clash with France while Southgate eased concerns over the availability of Declan Rice and John Stones. He said: “(Stones and Rice) are both in training.

“Callum Wilson has missed a little bit of training, so we’ve got to assess him. Raheem’s arrived back this morning so we’re going to have to assess exactly where he is at. He’s obviously missed a lot of training but great to have him back with the group.”