Masterful McCoy is the one to break old guard grip

It can end, however, with AP McCoy – a miracle-maker in the saddle – winning jump racing’s ‘blue riband’ contest, the totesport Cheltenham Gold Cup, on the unheralded Kempes.

This is not just the judgment of a McCoy devotee who has followed, and chronicled, his record-breaking career since he won the 1997 Gold Cup on the unrated Mr Mulligan when his raw determination made up for a lack of finesse – and when his tactics revolved around leading from the front.

It is also what the statistics say as 14 equine warriors prepare to go to post for the most open – and unpredictable – Gold Cup in a generation.

There is only one certainty today. The winner will be obvious afterwards. It is that kind of race as the ‘golden generation’ – Imperial Commander, Kauto Star and Denman – take on a younger cavalry headed by Long Run, the King George hero.

Yet the form book – and the small-print contains countless clues – suggests that the four principals are potentially vulnerable to a horse, an unfashionable outsider with a moderate reputation, that performs on the day.

Having won last year’s Grand National in the iconic green and yellow striped silks of JP McManus, McCoy – the champion jockey for the last 15 years – said one of his next objectives was to deliver a first Gold Cup for his boss whom he describes as “racing’s greatest supporter”.

Kempes, from the yard of this week’s Champion Hurdle-winning trainer Willie Mullins, is that horse, and McCoy is in the mood to end a challenging week on a personal high judging by the BBC Sports Personality of the Year’s steel-faced demeanour and quiet confidence.

His mount, a 10-1 chance, has Grade One form – a key requisite – after backing up last April’s victory in the Growise Champion Novice Chase at Punchestown with Leopardstown’s Hennessy Gold Cup last month, a race in which David Casey deputised for McCoy.

His eight years of age means he is approaching his optimum, another plus as Mullins looks for his first Gold Cup, and Kempes arrives at Cheltenham on the back of three runs – a final reason to be optimistic, given that the four market leaders have appeared just six times between them this season.

Age, and question-marks about their form, also count against each of the main players.

No 11-year-old has won since Mandarin in 1962, a trend that goes against stablemates Kauto Star and Denman as they attempt to regain their crowns – though the forecast rain will be welcomed by the latter.

Supreme horses, but has Kauto, the 2007 and 2009 winner, recovered from the broken blood vessel that saw his attempt to win a fifth successive King George end in failure? Ruby Walsh certainly thinks so, though his remarks were preceded by a recognition that one serious jumping blunder would put paid to their chances.

Ditto Denman. He has not been seen since November when he so nearly overcame top weight to win a third Hennessy.

The liver chestnut has since undergone a wind operation, but has he retained the raw power that saw off all-comers in 2008? Talking to the Yorkshire Post, Sam Thomas – who has a great affinity with the horse – certainly thinks so. His optimism was infectious, certainly from a betting perspective.

You have to go back to 1998, the year of Cool Dawn’s surprise win when the ante-post favourite See More Business was hampered by McCoy pulling up an injured Cyborgo, for a 10-year-old to prevail, though Imperial Commander’s trainer Nigel Twiston-Davies bristles at this notion.

“Horses can’t read such rubbish,” he said before pointing out that “records are there to broken”.

He was not lacking confidence but the reigning champion has only appeared once this season when he just prevailed from a fast-finishing Tidal Bay who reopposes today with Yorkshire jockey Brian Hughes in the saddle.

The fact that only one horse has successfully defended the Gold Cup since the sepia days of Arkle – Henrietta Knight’s Best Mate – is also a worry for a stable whose Champion Hurdle hope Khyber Kim did not live up to the pre-race optimism.

More reserved, as he considered the historical conundrums, was Sam Waley-Cohen, amateur rider, friend of royal bride-to-be Kate Middleton and last of the Corinthians, as his mount, Long Run, attempts to become the first six-year-old victor since Mill House prevailed in 1963.

His biggest worry is not the horse’s credentials, the manner of the King George victory was emphatic, but nagging doubts that Long Run’s two previous Cheltenham appearances – in last year’s RSA Chase and then the Paddy Power Gold Cup – ended in defeat. Is he strong enough to climb the punishing final hill to greatness and is Waley-Cohen, as an amateur jockey riding for his father, good enough?

Tellingly, Thomas, Denman’s jockey, believes Long Run has the scope to do so and that his third place in last year’s RSA Chase was “a mighty performance by such a young horse”. He went on: “He’s the one I fear and there are no worries on the jockey front, Sam is vastly experienced.”

Of the remainder, they, too, have doubts – as well as three miles, two furlongs of punishing undulations and obstacles – to overcome.

Though Sir Alex Ferguson’s part-owned What A Friend and the Irish-trained Pandorama have the same profile as Kempes, the former was disappointing at Newbury last month while the going is unlikely to be sufficiently testing for the latter.

Midnight Chase, trained in Devon by Neil Mulholland who spent his ‘journeyman jockey’ days in North Yorkshire, has winning form at Cheltenham that makes him far more appealing than Weird Al, who won Wetherby’s Towton Novices’ Chase in 2010, or Howard Johnson’s Tidal Bay, who has a mind of his own.

He could win or be last, depending on his mood, he is that enigmatic.

Midnight Chase is an intriguing spare ride for Tom Scudamore, who replaces the luckless Dougie Costello, from Malton, who broke his leg on Monday.

A jockey whose family is steeped in racing history, he would like to win to silence his grandfather Michael whose victory – on Linwell in 1957 – was the last time that a Scudamore graced the Gold Cup winner’s enclosure.

An earnest student of the sport, Scudamore junior believes Kauto Star, Denman and Imperial Commander – all great champions – are now past their prime.

“It’s going to be a year when the winner comes from left field – and looks obvious afterwards,” he said. “It’s a big ask for Long Run and, unlike previous years, we’ve seen so little of the main players – Denman and Imperial Commander haven’t been seen since November.

“Course form is important. It worked for Imperial last year and it will help Midnight Chase with his three wins at Cheltenham. Can he maintain a Gold Cup pace? I don’t know. Horses like Cool Dawn, Cool Ground, Mr Mulligan and Looks Like Trouble have all won Gold Cups, and looked obvious afterwards. Midnight Chase is in that league.”

Of the rest, which horse does Scudamore believe is the most likely to spring a surprise? “Kempes,” he says. “Anything is possible when AP McCoy rousts a horse and, believe me, he wants to win another Gold Cup.”