NFL Predictions: Super-computer tips San Francisco 49ers to shock Los Angeles Rams, plus wins for Dallas Cowboys, Green Bay Packers, New York Giants and Minnesota Vikings in London

The 49ers - who have a growing interest in Leeds given the franchise’s investment in Leeds United, as well as having obtained UK marketing rights - are being backed to topple the defending Super Bowl champion Los Angeles Rams on Monday Night Football.

San Francisco – the subject of a watch party in Leeds at the BOX sports bar on Sunday October 16 for their Week Six game at Atlanta Falcons – lost to Denver Broncos last week but data experts FiveThirtyEight are predicting a bounceback victory for the 49ers over their NFC divisional rivals on Monday Night Football, 1.15am Tuesday UK time live on Sky Sports NFL and Channel 5.

The 49ers will have Jimmy Garopolo under centre again with starting quarterback Trey Lance injured, and despite going up against a much-vaunted defense, the 49ers are backed to succeed and move to 2-2 on the season.

Head coach Kyle Shanahan said: “They don't change much. It just gives them a few more options. Bobby (Wagner’s) a middle linebacker who is also a very good pass rusher, so each week they can play him at different positions. It's the same thing they do with [DB] Jalen [Ramsey]. Jalen, sometimes he’s a corner, sometimes he's a nickel, sometimes he's their three-four edge backer in a nickel front. They do that with everybody, now they can do it with Bobby. They don't put him at corner, but it's just switching people up, testing your rules, all that stuff, which it's tough when they have those guys out there, how they mix it up.”

Data experts are also predicting a fourth straight defeat of the 2022 season for the Las Vegas Raiders and a win over their NFC East divisional rivals Washington Commanders, for the Dallas Cowboys.

Buffalo Bills are also tipped to narrowly beat Baltimore Ravens in a huge AFC clash.

Minnesota Vikings and New Orleans Saints contest the first of three London games this season when they meet at Tottenham Hotspur Stadium (Sunday, 2.30pm).

Following the latest round of games, data experts at FiveThirtyEight have predicted how the Week Four NFL results will look. Using their ratings for each team, they simulate seasons thousands of times to produce their prediction for each game.

Here’s how the FiveThirtyEight formula works: Forecast is based on 50,000 simulations of the season and updates after every game.

According to the website: “FiveThirtyEight’s traditional model uses Elo ratings (a measure of strength based on head-to-head results and quality of opponent) to calculate teams’ chances of winning their regular-season games and advancing to and through the playoffs. Our quarterback-adjusted Elo model incorporates news reports to project likely starters for every upcoming game and uses our quarterback Elo ratings to adjust win probabilities for those games.

"A team’s current quarterback adjustment is based on its likely starter in its next game and how much better or worse that QB is than the team’s top starter.

“Game metrics are on a 0-100 scale. Quality is determined by the harmonic mean of the teams’ Elo ratings; importance measures how much the result will alter playoff projections; the overall number is the average of the quality and importance values.”

Here are the Week Four NFL predictions from FiveThirtyEight

Predictions

Sunday 2.30pm UK time

Minnesota Vikings @ New Orleans Saints

The Vikings have a 60% win probability compared to the Saints’ 40% with a ELO point spread of minus 3.

Sunday 1pm (6pm UK time) slate

Buffalo Bills @ Baltimore Ravens

The Bills have a 54% win probability versus the Ravens 46% with a ELO point spread of minus 1.

Chicago Bears @ New York Giants

New York Giants have a 58% win probability compared to the Bears’ 42% with a minus 2.5 point ELO point spread.

Cleveland Browns @ Atlanta Falcons

Cleveland Browns have a 53% win probability against the Falcons who are at 47% with a minus 1 ELO point spread.

Jacksonville Jaguars @ Philadephia Eagles

The unbeaten Philadelphia Eagles have a huge 72% win probability against 28% for the Jags, with a ELO points spread of minus 6.5.

Los Angeles Charges @ Houston Texans

Los Angeles Chargers have a 62% win probability against 38% for the Texans with a 3.5 point spread.

New York Jets @ Pittsburgh Steelers

The Steelers have a 71% win probability against the Jets’ 29% with a minus 6 points spread.

Seattle Seahawks @ Detroit Lions

The Lions have a 61% win probability versus 39% for the Seahawks with a minus 3 ELO point spread.

Tennessee Titans @ Indianapolis Colts

The Colts have a 57% win probability against the Titans’ 43% with a minus 3 point spread.

Washington Commanders @ Dallas Cowboys

Cowboys have a 58% win probability compared to the Commanders 42% with a minus 2 spread.

Sunday 4.05pm/4.25pm slate (9.05pm/9.25pm UK time)

Arizona Cardinals @ Carolina Panthers

The Cardinals have a 51% win probability against the Panthers 49% with a -0.5 point spread.

Denver Broncos @ Las Vegas Raiders

Denver has a 53% win probability while the Raiders have a 47% one, with a -0.5 point spread.

New England Patriots @ Green Bay Packers

Green Bay has a 73% win probability versus the Patriots’ 27% with a minus 7 ELO point spread.

Sunday Night Football

Kansas City Chiefs @ Tampa Bay Buccaneers

The Bucs possess a 59% win probability compared to Kansa City who are at 41% with a minus 2.5 point spread.

Monday Night Football

Los Angeles Rams @ San Francisco 49ers

The 49ers have a 55% win probability against the Rams 45% with a minus 1.5 ELO spread.