Food production claims 'a big lie', says soil group

Dramatic summaries of future food requirements which are routinely quoted by politicians and farmers' leaders are seriously inaccurate, according to the Soil Association, which has published an investigation: Telling porkies: The big fat lie about doubling food production.
By The Newsroom
Published 23rd Apr 2010, 16:52 BST
Updated 23rd Apr 2010, 16:52 BST

It says: "In the UK and globally, the future direction of food and farming is being driven almost entirely by two frequently quoted statistics.

"Experts such as the UN Secretary General, the UK Government's Chief Scientist, the current Secretary of State for the Environment, the Conservative Party, the National Farmers' Union and Monsanto, are all saying that we need to increase food production 50 per cent by 2030 or that it needs to double by 2050."

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The report says these figures are inaccurate summaries of a 2006 report by the UN Food & Agriculture Organisation which was itself based on shaky assumptions. On close inspection, the report did suggest that production would need to increase by around 70 per cent by 2050 over 2005-2007 levels, but that was a measurement in dollar value, assuming a boom in demand for meat and dairy products.

It was highly disputable even before it was rounded upwards by politicians. And there was no substantiation in print for the 50 per cent by 2030 figure.

Peter Melchett, Soil Association policy director, said: "The big fat lie has dominated policy and media discussions of food and farming, making it increasingly difficult for advocates of sustainable farming methods to convince people we can feed the world without more damage to the environment and animal welfare."

Defra pointed out that it had used the 70 per cent figure in a report in March, summing up the reasons for government policy, based on estimates of a rise in global population from 6.5 billion to 9-10 billion and economic growth leading to increased demand for richer diets.

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But the Soil Association quoted a list of examples of the bigger figure being used by influential speakers in recent months, including NFU president Peter Kendall. It said the lower figure, and an assumption of fairer shares of resources, made it possible to argue that organic methods could do the job.

Mr Kendall said: "The Soil Association appears to be in denial. The suggestion that the world might have to double food production by 2050 is a plausible analysis that is not only drawn from the UN report of 2006 but other analysis from a range of authoritative sources.

"Whether the increase turns out to be another 70 per cent or 100 per cent is largely immaterial. The challenges are vast."

The Soil Association report is at http://tinyurl. com/yybgx5t

CW 24/4/10

Related topics:DEFRA