It’s too close to call but I’d love to see new name on trophy – Kear

When champions Wigan Warriors start the end-of-season finale tomorrow by hosting last year’s League Leaders’ Shield winners Huddersfield Giants in a qualifying tie, the first true steps are taken towards the prize everyone covets – Grand Final success at Old Trafford in a little over three weeks’ time.

But who will get there and via which route has left even the most experienced campaigners perplexed and unsure.

Former Hull FC, Wakefield and Sheffield coach Kear is among those who finds it difficult to ascertain who will be victors in Manchester on October 11.

“I’d prefer it if you asked me again next week!” he said, as that is when the number of potential champions will be down from eight to six.

“I think it is really open simply because when you look at the point differential between the top five teams there’s only three separating Saints in first down to Warrington in fifth.

“When you consider that’s over 27 games it does really show there’s not much to choose between so many of these teams in the top half.”

Warrington, of course, have been beaten Grand Finalists in each of the last two seasons while the unrivalled kings of play-off football – Leeds Rhinos – must now start from sixth, their lowest finishing position since 1996.

A five-match losing sequence in the league, encompassing their Challenge Cup final win over Castleford Tigers, saw Leeds’s hopes of top spot disappear.

Castleford, meanwhile, have been the talk of the season with their quality football and transformation under Daryl Powell.

But they have to deal with the disappointment of missing out on the League Leaders’ Shield, the 28-6 defeat at Catalan instead seeing them tumble to fourth and facing a trip to Saints on Friday.

Kear is intrigued to see how his home-town club, who have never finished top, now fare.

“Castleford need to be mentally tough,” said the Batley Bulldogs and Wales coach. “First of all, I don’t know how much under-performing against Leeds at Wembley hurt them.

“But not only that, Cas then under-performed in Catalan, too, last weekend.

“They have been great this year but in their two big, must-win games, they really didn’t come to the party.

“You can understand why there’ll be question marks over them now. It’s up to the players to prove everyone wrong.

“I think Cas need to go to Saints, nail a performance and come away with a win for their own confidence. I’m hoping they will.

“But there’s a lot of character in that Saints side as they showed by winning at Leeds who, granted, were down to 12 men the other week.

“They came just short at Huddersfield on Friday with a man off but they showed great character and it will be a tough ask for Cas.”

Castleford, like all the top four, will, of course, get a second opportunity to progress next week if they fail, and that is something which leaves Kear a little cold.

“I always feel these first v fourth, and second v third games don’t really give a true reflection of what’s going on as the sides involved are not staring down the barrel,” he added. “They each know they’ll get a second chance and that’s why it’s hard to call them.

“But with Wigan being at home you’d think they’d probably just do it against Huddersfield. But I really don’t put much credence on these games – it’s when it’s knockout you really see it.”

Huddersfield, though, have gone seven games unbeaten but they are without talisman and captain Danny Brough for tomorrow’s fixture.

Kear added: “They won the League Leaders’ Shield last year and I’m just waiting for them to really find a few good performances.

“They’ve got up to third without really hitting their straps yet this year. If they can do, they will be a danger in the play-offs.

Kear refuses to write off six-times champions Leeds, who host Catalan in an elimination tie on Saturday. “Leeds certainly can lift their game as they have proved so many times previously,” he added.

“We’ve seen what Catalan did to Cas but I think Leeds just have too much for them.

“These are the games I like, though. In the other eliminator I think Warrington will clean Widnes up. Although they came fifth, they finished the season pretty well and performance-wise they’ve been very confident.

“Overall, I do genuinely think it is too tight to call just yet for the Grand Final winners and we’ll have more a of a picture next week. But I’d love to see a new name on the trophy. That would be good for the competition.”