Donald Trump's election and new US trading challenges just start of big changes facing Yorkshire businesses: Beckie Hart

It’s been a big week in politics – and for our economy. Across the pond, Donald Trump was elected as the next President of the United States – Britain’s largest export market.

As we continue to face inflationary pressures, disruption to supply chains and labour market shortages across the globe, a successful trading partnership with the US remains key to the UK and its businesses.

Here at home, Kemi Badenoch was appointed as leader of the Conservative Party, and as Leader of the Opposition – the first black person or woman of colour to be elected to these posts.

Hide Ad
Hide Ad

The new Conservative leader has a key role to fulfil building the political consensus to tackle those issues holding back investment, including planning reform, grid connections and more proportionate regulation.

Donald Trump has a large list of major policies he has said he will begin to enact on the first day of his new presidency (Matt Rourke/AP)Donald Trump has a large list of major policies he has said he will begin to enact on the first day of his new presidency (Matt Rourke/AP)
Donald Trump has a large list of major policies he has said he will begin to enact on the first day of his new presidency (Matt Rourke/AP)

And last Thursday, we got our first interest rates decision since the Autumn Budget.

The Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) cut interest rates from 5 per cent to 4.75 per cent - in line with the gradual loosening in monetary policy that the Bank of England has signalled so far. That trend is reflected elsewhere too - in the US, the Federal Reserve decided to cut interest rates by a quarter point.

The Bank of England also predicts that inflation will return “sustainably” to its target of 2 per cent in the first half of 2027. And while the worst of inflationary pressures are behind us, the Monetary Policy Committee is treading an increasingly fine line.

Hide Ad
Hide Ad

On the one hand, the CBI’s latest surveys suggest that growth is already shifting down a gear. Our latest Distributive Trades Survey found a decline in retail sales volume and our Financial Services Survey found that business volumes growth slowed down in the third quarter of the year, after strong growth in the previous quarter.

But on the other hand, some measures of domestic price pressures – notably services inflation – remain stubbornly high.

Of course, following the Autumn Budget, the line the Bank has to tread has become even finer.

The Chancellor’s decision to loosen fiscal policy is likely to stoke inflation a little further – with the resulting short-term boost to demand not matched by a boost to supply potential.

Hide Ad
Hide Ad

On top of that, the rise in Employer National Insurance Contributions will add to the cost burden firms face, already exacerbated by higher interest rates over the last few years. It also means that many of our region’s businesses will be thinking longer and harder before making the investments the UK needs to accelerate our growth journey.

Taken together, we still expect the Bank of England to proceed with more rate cuts going forward. But with renewed inflationary pressures coming down the tracks, the pace of cuts will likely be gradual – as the prospect fades of a faster loosening in monetary policy.

It’s clear that Yorkshire and Humber firms face many challenges that are holding back their growth ambitions and as they adjust to a new operating environment following the Autumn Budget, we will bring that strong voice of business to the table – to ensure that we don’t take any steps back when it comes to economic growth.

There’s no doubt that plenty of change is afoot. The CBI will continue to work with firms, the government, opposition, and our partners abroad, to smooth any bumps in the road, and find shared problems to shared solutions.

Beckie Hart is CBI regional director for Yorkshire and Humber

Comment Guidelines

National World encourages reader discussion on our stories. User feedback, insights and back-and-forth exchanges add a rich layer of context to reporting. Please review our Community Guidelines before commenting.

News you can trust since 1754
Follow us
©National World Publishing Ltd. All rights reserved.Cookie SettingsTerms and ConditionsPrivacy notice