Doncaster Sheffield Airport: Official warning over 'particularly speculative' passenger forecasts is deleted

Officials for DSA said the document “was uploaded in error” by the CAA and that updated information has been submitted to the body since it was written.

The now-deleted regulator’s report, which was downloaded by The Yorkshire Post before its removal, also said of DSA's plans: "Forecasts are likely to be assumption-driven and speculative based upon tentative commitments from airline operators that the sponsor is entering into."

It recommended that a forthcoming public consultation on the airspace reinstatement “should reflect that forecasts are likely to be reviewed due to uncertainty in market conditions”.

The report also states: “Forecasts to date are likely to be particularly speculative as they depend on market conditions for the airline industry as a whole and the commercial agreements which the airport enters into."

It highlighted rising jet fuel prices and added “the airline industry at the time of submission was facing significant uncertainty and disruption”.

Earlier this week, Heathrow airport reported a 1.8 per cent fall in passenger numbers last month and cited “continued suppression of Middle East traffic” because of the conflict in the region as among the reasons.

City of Doncaster Council (CDC) is seeking to reopen DSA under public ownership following its closure by private owner Peel in November 2022.

It is applying to the CAA to reinstate DSA’s airspace, with a final decision in the multi-stage process due next year.

CDC had initially sought to restart the previous arrangements which had been in place before the closure. But its initial option was ‘discontinued’, with two other alternatives put forward instead.

While the initial plan had forecasted 2.5m passengers a year within a decade of operation, the new alternatives – known as ‘Option 2’ and ‘Option 3’ - set out estimates of 1.1m passengers a year by 2037. The latter number is substantially below the 1.9m level previously deemed “affordable” for the reopening project but a project spokesperson said in March that officials remain “very confident” in the business case for the airport.

The now-deleted CAA document said DSA had chosen ‘Option 3’ as its preferred choice for reinstating airspace – a proposal which is due to require less airspace but involve a “fundamental redesign” of flight paths compared to previous arrangements.

The document said both Option 2 and 3 needed to be reassessed following “some shortcomings in the methods used” and also undergo design principle evaluation to ensure they both remain safe and feasible, taking into account "the uncertainty underpinning forecasts of air transport movements" and “the impact of elevated jet fuel prices in the short-run”.

A DSA spokesperson said: “A document was recently published on the CAA’s airspace change portal. The CAA has acknowledged that this document was uploaded in error and has now been removed.

"We appreciate that when read in isolation it raised a number of questions however, since it was written, our team has submitted an updated document set to the CAA for targeted review. When the public consultation is formally launched, we will provide information about the methodology used to assess the design options, how we have selected the preferred option, and what that means for the future airspace around Doncaster Sheffield Airport.

“We continue to work proactively and constructively with the CAA team to manage the timeline and we do not foresee any programme delays as a result of the latest gateway update and anticipate progressing to Stage 3 consultation on schedule this summer.”

The CAA did not respond to request for comment.

It comes as South Yorkshire mayor Oliver Coppard confirmed that talks to change the DSA lease with Peel remain ongoing. Agreement is yet to be reached on whether £160m of devolution funding due to be supplied by Mr Coppard’s office for the reopening project will be exempt from a turnover rent clause potentially entitling Peel to up to 20 per cent of revenue above annual base rent payments.

The devolution funding will not be released until the lease is renegotiated, while a £57m loan the council is due to use to frontload spending is not due to be drawn until the start of the next financial year in 2027. Following a private briefing to councillors earlier this month, sources claimed that the lease needs to be renegotiated by the next SYMCA board meeting in September as current funding is running out. CDC did not wish to comment on the claims.

In response to a question about the lease renegotiations and whether a deal is needed by September, Mr Coppard told a SYMCA board meeting: “I’ve always been clear there is no blank cheque for the project.

“We have to protect taxpayers’ money as well as doing everything we can to reopen DSA.

“Negotiations involving Peel Group, City of Doncaster Council and SYMCA are continuing. Most aspects of the lease variation have been agreed in principle, with the turnover rent clause remaining under active discussion.

"While I want to see swift progress on this renegotiation, this has to be the right deal. That is what we will make sure we get. That is not stopping the significant progress that is being made at DSA. Given the commercial sensitive nature of the negotiations, it wouldn’t be appropriate to provide a running commentary on that progress. A further update will be provided to the SYMCA board when circumstances allow and that will be in the public domain as soon as possible.”

Work on reopening the airport, with a target date of Easter 2028 for passenger flights, is continuing – with an announcement made that more than 20 people have already been recruited into Air Traffic Control and Air Traffic Services roles, including nine trainees.

Simon Hinchley, executive director of Airport Operations, said: "Each appointment we make and every investment in technology is another step towards reopening the airport with the highest standards of safety, professionalism and service.

"Bringing together experienced people, talented trainees and industry-leading training technology gives us real confidence that we're building a resilient operation ready to support the airport's successful return to commercial flights. We're creating an operation that will serve passengers, airlines and the economic growth of the region for many years to come."