Rising ‘NEETs’ risk signals need for local authorities to lead post-16 education action: James Farr
Leeds is one of the English cities that keeps going from strength to strength thanks to a combination of factors including its vibrant business community, renowned universities and its rejuvenated football club.
As things stand, the city’s population is currently projected to rise to almost 900,000 by 2033 according to the Office for National Statistics (ONS), equating to an eight per cent increase from 2022.
As teenagers across Yorkshire receive their GCSE results, it is worth pausing to reflect on the impact demographics will have on educational journeys. Growing popularity of college courses in some areas is creating capacity challenges as courses fill up early.
It means that this summer there is a growing risk that more young people will not be able to embark on preferred courses in September. It is at further education colleges lack space to expand to meet increases in demand for place where the problem arises.
These areas include Leeds and Greater Manchester, which both received additional Department for Education funding earlier this year to address a shortage of post-16 course places.
To make sense of the situation, a look at statistics which focus on young people which put things into perspective.
Between 2019 and 2024 the 16-18 population of Leeds rose 20.8 per cent (up by circa 5,100). Between 2019 and 2023 (latest data), the proportion of Leeds school leavers aged 16 progressing to an FE college course rose from 31.7 per cent to 33.5 per cent.
This translated into more than 500 more young people gaining an FE college place in Leeds in 2023 than in 2019 (from 2,414 to 2,939 – a 22 per cent increase).
The data tells a similar story in other areas, most notably Wakefield (where almost 300 more young people entered an FE college in 2023 than 2019 – a 24 per cent rise) and Hull (which has seen a 33 per cent rise in school leavers entering college, albeit from a lower base).
High demand for college places across Yorkshire risks hampering efforts to reduce the number of 16 to 18-year-olds not in education, employment or training (NEETs).
The 16-18 population in England is expected to peak in 2029, but some colleges already report difficulties meeting demand, resulting in higher competition for places, especially in technical subject areas such as construction and motor vehicle.
We know from speaking to further education leaders on a regular basis that the lack of capacity is the topic that is uppermost in their minds with many courses filling up early.
This leaves fewer options for those who apply late in the cycle in summer – these are often young people more likely to be at risk of drifting away from the education system. There is a very real risk that a lack of capacity will hamper efforts to reduce the levels of 16 to 18-year-old NEETs as fewer young people access first-choice provision.
Plus, in some areas there is less provision available to re-engage NEETs midway through the academic year as fewer specialist providers are working with hard-to-reach young people nowadays compared to a few years ago.
Local authorities have the statutory duty to ensure there is sufficient 16-18 provision to meet young people’s needs, and some are already taking positive action.
But to rise to this generational challenge, they must work closely with their provider base to gather evidence of demand and provider capacity and - where they identify risks - develop jointly owned solutions to the issue, working with Department for Education where required.
James Farr is director of post-16 skills and training consultancy Think