The average house in Yorkshire could fall in value by £14,000 within just two years if there is a no deal Brexit, it is claimed this morning.
Business advisory firm KPMG published research on the future of house prices across the UK regions, based on data from the Land Registry, when considering the impact of Brexit.
KPMG's investigations also showed that if we did leave the EU with a deal in place then the Yorkshire housing market could grow by 2.4 per cent, the highest rate in any region in the country.
Read more: www.yorkshirepost.co.uk/business
According to its findings, the average house price in Yorkshire in 2020 is set to be £164,000 if a deal is brokered. In such a scenario, KPMG expects price growth to slow to 1.1% this year, down from 2.9% in 2018. However, the market would rebound in 2020 with 2.4% growth.
However, the average value of a property in Yorkshire would shrink to £150,000 if the UK leaves the European Union without a deal. The research estimates that the market would shrink by 0.2% this year and by 5.7% in 2020.
Read more: Hard Brexit or no, signs point towards recession
Giles Taylor, Head of Property at KPMG in Yorkshire, said: “There will be some degree of slowdown in the Yorkshire housing market no matter what lies ahead and as long as there remain concerns over the future of the UK economy and its relationship with Europe.
"However, it doesn’t detract from the fundamental factor driving the market – the lack of regional housing supply. Sale volumes will likely fall much more than prices – making government housing delivery targets impossible to achieve and slowing new building across the sector.
“Our findings show that the Yorkshire market has the opportunity for strong growth in the coming year if Brexit negotiations can be resolved with a deal. At least in the short term, the dampening of prices could offer some relief and provide an opportunity for buyers to get onto the ladder.”
Yael Selfin, Chief Economist at KPMG UK, concluded: “Looking ahead to 2020, it promises to be a delicate year for the housing market. Even if Brexit can be resolved relatively smoothly, the travails of the global economy will impact growth in the UK, making prospects for house prices relatively subdued.
“A potential upside for the housing market could come from current government plans to change stamp duty such as shifting the burden from the buyer to the seller, which if delivered in time for the Autumn Statement, could lead to a potential increase in demand from buyers, providing a short-term boost to the housing market.”