Bumper crop of property experts from God’s own County predict what will happen to the Yorkshire housing market in 2023

“The region has benefitted from a shift in buyer preferences created by COVID and we have seen a number of London residents migrate from the capital into the region.

“Channel 4 choosing Leeds as its national HQ along with several production companies has also brought additional buyers here.

“Rises in interest rates and energy costs undoubtedly create uncertainty and the effect was evident during the last half of 2022 and we expect it to continue into the first quarter of 2023.

“My prediction is that there will be sustainable demand going forward against a lack of supply, creating a stable environment.

“However, the impact of rising living and finance costs is bound to influence affordability.

“My guess is that a fall in pricing of around five per cent may be seen over the next year, with peaks and troughs depending on property type and its location.

“Good-quality family housing should prove relatively robust in the middle market, between £350,000 - £600,000.

“The buy-to-let market is likely to be more volatile as the squeeze in running costs pressurises investors to exit,

“Other investors may see a chance to find a bargain which will reduce prices and expand yields by 0.5 to one per cent.”

*Edward Hartshorne, managing director, Blenkin & Co. estate and letting agents

“2023 will herald changes both to estate agency and the way people approach the buying and selling process.

“We recognise that higher interest rates and lower confidence are reducing the overall volume of sales transactions and for geared-up estate agents, the only effective response is to capture a greater share of the market.

“I have consciously invested in experienced staff, built our modus operandi around robust service and outcomes and thrown considerable resources into targeted expansion into the lettings sector.

“My conviction is that investment and resources contribute to a resilience that enables a business and its clients to prosper during challenging times.

“In sharp contrast, conveyor belt estate agency is collapsing as are online agents.

“Buyers are liberating themselves from a long-held fixation and dependence upon rapid price growth.

“For 2023 and beyond, more buyers will be basing their decision on a longer term plan and we will see less property flipping and amateur toes being dipped into the buy-to-let market.

“Price reductions are likely to be temporary but they will change the pattern of buyer behaviour and, on a positive note, Yorkshire will keep on delivering as demand outstrips supply for the best stock.”

*Tim Gower, director at Robin Jessop estate agents.

“For those of us who have been around for some time, the recent changes to the property market are not unexpected.

“It is quite usual for there to be adjustments due to changes in economic factors but it is the speed at which these changes have taken place that has taken many by surprise.

“However, in terms of the market in the Yorkshire Dales, I would still expect business to continue as usual, as the market is driven by those able to purchase either with cash or without having to sell a property first.

“Whilst there is also a demand for those buyers requiring a mortgage, this does not form a particularly high proportion of the overall market here.

“For those who need a mortgage will see mortgage rates now settling back down to average levels and this provides confidence despite increases in the costs of living

“We are seeing continued demand for quality rural homes together with those Needing refurbishment, with many sales still being concluded by informal tender/best and final offers.

“We have seen no real evidence of prices having pulled-back despite the number of viewings being down from post pandemic levels.

“That said, we have seen more informed decisions being made, with more reliance on professional recommendations by structural surveyors and solicitors.

“As a result, the speed at which transactions take place has slowed down, arguably to pre-pandemic rates. This instead of the rush to push sales through at pace.

“The result is a more informed and slower sale/purchase process, but which still results in strong prices being paid for quality rural property in the Yorkshire Dales and I see no end to this in 2023.”

*Claire Kendall, Richard Kendall estate agents.

“Overall we are going into 2023 with our eyes wide open. There is no question that this year is going to bring us peaks and troughs.

“The start of January has been positive and we are 60 per cent up on the same period as last year for valuations booked and 35 per cent up on viewings requested.

“We can only take it with a pinch of salt until this produces instructions and offers. “However, there is confidence in those we speak to and offers are coming in and, at times, multiple viewings and offers.

“There will always be cash around in the property market and we learnt that in the double dip recession of 2008-2010.

“House prices are already taking a knock but it’s whether or not vendors will accept that. It will take time for the market to adjust and lenders will no doubt be making it difficult for buyers.

“Our in-house mortgage team is busier than ever, a positive sign.

“In summary, we have got to be realistic. This year will be tough but anything can happen and so I am quietly optimistic that it won’t be as bad as we have feared.”

Andrew Beadnall, Beadnall Copley estate agents.

“Halfway through the year no one would have or could have predicted the chaos that was created by the now infamous mini-budget.

“However with the dust settling, there is a sense that the initial panic is over and a sense of normality is returning.

“Mortgage rates have started to come back down and, whilst borrowing is considerably more expensive than it has been in recent years, demand is still relatively strong and supply relatively short.

“Some sellers’ expectations have had to be adjusted, prices have not dropped dramatically and whilst there will no doubt be some price change over the next 12 months I don’t envisage it to be the large and instead more of a correction.

“Higher energy bills and increases with cost of living may well lead to a rise in larger properties coming to the market as people look to downsize.

“This may be good news for some given that there has been a shortage of supply of more substantial family homes.

“In a quieter market place it is imperative that we as estate agents work diligently and proactively as it is no good to simply sit back and rely on internet advertising to sell a House.

“It is in a tougher market where quality agents can really prove their worth and a return to a more traditional yet innovative estate agency will produce the best results.”

*Will Linley, Chairman of Linley & Simpson estate and letting agents.

“The region’s letting market is poised to be dominated by the imbalance between rising demand and dwindling supply

“The gap is as wide as we have seen it since we launched 25 years ago and this is a concern.

“It has triggered a rise in rents to levels never witnessed before. However, we expect this rate of increase to level out as affordability issues come to the fore.

“Without Government intervention to encourage and fast-track more landlords to enter the market, 2023 will go down as another missed opportunity to give stock levels a much-needed boost.

“The biggest issue is likely to be the scrapping of Section 21 ‘no fault evictions’. “There is industry concern that this is a step too far, given that landlords clearly aren’t in the habit of evicting tenants for no reason. So it serves as yet another deterrent for landlords investing in the private rented sector.”

*Mark Manning, managing director Manning Stainton.

“What goes up, must come down and so it came to pass that as we approached the end of 2022 the post pandemic boom finally and somewhat predictably ran out of steam.

“UK house prices over the last two years have grown by over 22 per cent and in Yorkshire by just over 26 per cent adding almost £37,000 to the price of the average property in our region.

“Most experts and commentators are calling big price drops in 2023.

“However, we see something a little differently. If you take a step back to the property market pre pandemic, we can see a number of similarities with what we are experiencing today.

“The volume of new buyers registering and actively looking whilst down a third on the hysteria of last year remain broadly in line with the long run averages of 2018 and 2019.

“The number of properties available, whilst greater than a year ago, remains constrained, compared with those years before the pandemic.

“Even with higher mortgage rates, my prediction for prices in 2023 is no price growth in the first half of the year with perhaps a small correction followed by two to three per cent growth in the second half of the year.

*Patrick McCutcheon, Head of Residential at Dacre, Son & Hartley.

“The biggest issue over the last couple of years has been a lack of supply of property and thus choice for consumers.

“At last, it looks as if the level of homes for sale is going to improve but remember, that needs to be considered against two years of undersupply and so our view is that the market will return to balanced normality over the coming months, rather than being heavily tipped in favour of the buyer.

“As for interest rates, I don’t believe anyone will be surprised given the acceleration of inflation and The Bank of England’s principal task of taming it.

“Too many of us a base rate of 3.5 per cent is not abnormal, even if it hasn’t been at that level for 14 years or so.“There has been some easing with longer term borrowing becoming more competitive.

“The Yorkshire market remains robust and benefits from the breadth and success of the local economy.

“On balance I don’t believe 2023 will deliver significant change other than improved supply delivering choice and removing a choke point from trading, with prices at the end of next year perhaps a couple of percentage points higher than at the present time.”

*Tony Wright, partner at Carter Jonas, Harrogate.

“Last year started still riding the wave of momentum from buyers’ changing requirements following the pandemic then, as interest rates started to increase, the market in Yorkshire paused to catch its breath before buyer demand fell.

“However, there was a noticeable number of buyers who had budgeted for higher interest rates and were still keen to commit to a purchase and we ended the year with a similar number of agreed sales as the same period last year.

“There was a perception that there was a significant fall through of transactions. The reality that we witnessed was quite different having carefully nurtured our sales pipeline through to successful completions in almost every case.

“There is no doubt 2023 will prove very different. However, there will still be buyers who need to buy and sellers who need to sell.

“Whilst acknowledging that economic headwinds may ease transaction levels, this should be judged in context of the frenzied post pandemic market.

“We anticipate a single digit price correction for some properties in 2023 but over the longer term, forecasts for growth remain positive and we foresee an early return in activity as sellers and buyers adapt to a more even balance between supply and demand."

*Edward Stoyle, Head of Residential Sales at Savills in York.

“Given the economic challenges we have and continue to face, the housing market throughout Yorkshire remains a remarkably strong one.

“Much has been made of the predicted drop in average house prices this year with our researchers forecasting falls of as much as 8.5 per cent across Yorkshire and the Humber but there is plenty of room for optimism.

“In such a vast county there are many variations that have a bearing on value and what a lot of people overlook is that effectively we are only losing a proportion of the gains in house prices that have been seen over the last two years.

“The value gap between Yorkshire and wider commuter markets will leave greater capacity for growth and, as such, we are expected to be one of the strongest performing regions over the five years to 2027.

“Yorkshire remains an incredibly popular relocation market and we see no reason why this trend will change this year. However, we expect the growing interest in eco and energy efficient homes to become far more prevalent among downsizers.

“Conversely, there are buyers with keen interest in classic properties in prime villages, which makes me think homes there will hold their value.

“Ultimately, the core challenge this year will be finding the stock to feed the demand which has remained relatively strong.”

*Natalie Parks, joint MD at Woolley Parks estate agents.

“I can’t deny the end of 2022 was tough for all. Rising cost of living, increased mortgage rates and the cold snap all influenced the housing market, causing sales to dip amid a consensus that the housing market was about to take a 2008 tumble.

“However, the first week of 2023 has proved positive with more UK sales agreed than in the first week of 2022.

“We are seeing a demand from downsizing and for living more sustainably and 2023 will see buyers reassess what they need from a property, with many looking for energy efficiency and so we expect to see a huge demand for new homes to be built to an A rated standard.

“Many families have chosen to live together to help combat the rising cost of living and we have many requests for homes offering multi-generational living. Home offices are also on the wish list.

“East Yorkshire has always offered affordable homes and we expect to see a surge of buyers wanting countryside locations or historic town settings, though buyer demand is likely to fall, leaving the housing market in a much more stable condition.”

*Nicola Spencer, Spencers estate agents.

“We are now in the midst of the aftermath of the pandemic, dealing with strikes, inflation, the effect of global wars, a cost of living crisis, and interest rate rises and it is clear that everyone in this industry is watching as spending is reined in.

"There is no doubt that there has been a halt to the property sales market and the rental market has slowed down substantially too, although rents are still at record highs.

“We feel that most people are holding their breath until the spring, with many hoping that energy prices will come down, that interest rates will settle, and that the threat of inflation rising further may dissolve.

“I believe property prices throughout 2023 in our region will remain pretty stagnant as we have already seen that price expectations drop up to 10-15 per cent in south and south west Sheffield.

“We are hopeful that by the summer and autumn of 2023 we will be in calmer waters, and will see confidence and steady growth return to the market.

“Unfortunately, there will be people unable to afford utility bills and remortgage rates so there will be people forced to sell their home but by the end of the year we are expecting to see the light at the end of the tunnel.”

*Tim Waring, Prime Residential at GSC Grays.

“After an exceptional 12 to 18 months, maybe a more normal market is what we all need. I suspect this is where we are now and, perhaps, should be a history tells us that a bear housing market often follows a bull market.

“Some call it a correction, for some it’s a downturn but history shows how resilient the UK housing market has been over many decades despite a few ups and downs along the way.

“There is no doubt for some, home ownership in recent years has been a route to a swift tax-free profit. However, homeownership should not be considered as an asset for short-term trading, unlike stocks and shares, and why I still have a fundamental belief in the adage, “safe as houses”.

“I believe the residential housing market this year will function in a sensible and effective fashion, though it is a sad reality that some owners may be forced to sell for financial reasons and there will be buyers who have to withdraw from planned purchases for similar reasons.

“However, they will be the exception, not the norm. Others might lack the confidence or ability to progress their property owning plans soon, but surely for many this will not be a long-term decision nor wish. Taking all these factors into consideration, realism is the watchword in 2023.”