Yorkshire housing market forecasts for 2024 by those who know best including sixteen of the region’s leading estate agents and property experts

Sellers are asking us for a realistic price without the cream on top and it’s a good time to buy as house prices are very reasonable. There is never going to be a better investment than your home. It’s where you go to relax, keep warm and be with the people you love. That is value for money and, as for location, Yorkshire is as strong and stable as it has ever been.

Andrew Beadnall, Beadnall Copley estate agents: 2023 turned out to be very much an “up and down” year with people’s buying position being the most important factor. Whilst demand dropped due to interest rate rises and uncertainty there wasn’t the drastic price drop that had been predicted. The biggest contributing factor to the number of transactions was actually down to a buyer’s ability to buy as many people who wanted to move were held back from doing so by being unable to sell their own property.

On the flip side buyers with no chain and cash in the bank seemed more reluctant to enter the market without expecting a discount. The housing market is very much a confidence led industry/entity and looking forward to 2024 I expect a much more stable market. Mortgage rates have now consistently been on a downward trend and the initial shock of the severity of interest rate rises seem to be behind us. With mortgage rates coming down affordability increases as does confidence so expect demand to be on the rise.

The market is still price sensitive so pricing realistically is key. However, we have found that providing a property shows the correct value, buyers are willing to pay the asking price or very close to it with standout properties still occasionally going to best and final bids. The rental market is continuing to go through a period of rapid price growth with demand far outstripping supply, there is simply not enough either new or returning stock to the market and as such the majority of properties that we have let this year have received multiple bids and this looks set to continue.

Matthew Emmerson, Partner at Allsop, Leeds: We have recently seen some confidence come back to the market and acclimatisation to current lending rates and costs of living. Mortgage lending has become more affordable and competitive which is likely to continue during the course of 2024. With the election on the horizon and inflation falling towards government target levels there is likely to be a fall in the base rate over the course of the year, in particular during the period leading into the election, likely to be in the autumn. Importantly swap rates (inter-bank lending rates) are under the base rate allowing fluidity in the lending market which is not expected to change.

Recent sales transactions are low but this is not due to a lack of appetite to buy more so a lack of property for sale. We have not been in a scenario whereby owners have had to sell and whilst there will be casualties following recent economic events during 2023 in particular during Q1 and Q2 2024, numbers are unlikely to reach the same levels apparent in 2008/2009, for example.

Obviously, a proportion of prospective purchasers have held off for more competitive lending rates but in the last 12 months a lack of supply has supported capital values. There are more opportunities in the market now compared to summer 2023 and I predict that transaction volumes will increase as confidence stabilises and envisage a fairly steady outlook in terms of pricing but overall expect between three and five per cent uplift by the end of 2024.

Rents have and will continue to push forward and whilst there has been unprecedented rental increase evident in the region over the last two to three years, there continues to be an acute shortage of stock within the city centres and suburbs and we would expect rents to increase by circa five per cent during the year.

Tim Gower, Robin Jessop estate agents, The Dales: What a year for the Yorkshire Dales housing market. Whilst the UK property market has been significantly influenced by the series of interest and mortgage rate rises, the market in the Dales remains largely dominated by cash buyers, investors, or those fortunately less reliant on finance. I anticipate this will continue in 2024.

This is because the Yorkshire Dales has historically demonstrated itself as an area for safe investment, due to the unique rural landscape and quality of available housing stock. This has resulted in a resilient property market with little evidence of falling sale prices, though what we have seen is that accurate pricing is the key to a successful sale.

This is evidenced by Rightmove statistics, which confirm that “overpricing always leads to a negative outcome” not just in the price achieved, but also in the speed of the transaction. In other words, accurate and realistic pricing will generally lead to a more successful sale. This has become particularly important as the general speed of transactions certainly slowed last year, as it became clear that purchasers were making more informed decisions through taking advice and recommendations from professional advisors.

We anticipate more favourable interest and mortgage rates in 2024, I expect to see a greater supply of sensibly priced properties and, as a result, an increase in the number of viewings, as confidence and optimism returns. We look forward to a positive 2024.

Edward Hartshorne, Blenkin and Co. estate agents: Estate agents who have been comfortably riding the waves of the market during the good times will find themselves crashing out of contention as upcoming challenges expose their weaknesses.

Precision marketing will be needed more than ever, and estate agents will need to refine the presentation of property in order to create an instant impact. Expecting to conclude a deal after casually listing a property on Rightmove will rightly be designated to the past.

We are now in uncharted territory where every power at our disposal has to be brought to bear in order to conclude a sale. During difficult times, the need to keep on the front foot is paramount.

Many corporates will be dismayed by dwindling sales figures and it’s likely that their focus will be on where to make redundancies in a declining market. In contrast, we and other motivated independents will focus on opportunities to go against the grain and find ways of taking the marketing to new levels.

I suspect that much of the action next year will be focused on homeowners scaling down from their long-term family homes in the country to buy still sizeable houses with easy-to-manage gardens and low running costs, convenient for amenities. Downsizers are proving to be committed buyers and their sense of urgency will certainly keep the market in the best towns and villages buoyant.

The upper end of the lettings market will continue to perform very strongly with demand significantly outstripping supply. Landlords will increasingly seek the help of specialist lettings agents as they are confronted with continued legislation changes.

Claire Kendall, Richard Kendall estate agents: Despite higher mortgage interest rates, I am pleased to say that sales in the Wakefield and Pontefract areas have remained steady. Moving into the latter part of 2023, mortgage deals have stabilised, and rates decreased towards the end of the year.

Whilst we do not anticipate the Bank of England making any changes to the current rates anytime soon, I am pleased to report that in the last quarter of 2023 we are 22 per cent up on agreed sales in comparison to the same time last year. It goes to show that the confidence in the property market remains resilient and whilst we are not expecting any dramatic changes in market conditions in 2024, we are optimistic the supply will continue to grow, as the demand for buying a house is very much already here.

Turning to the rental market, 2023 saw an unprecedented demand for rental properties. We have also seen rents increase on average 13 per cent over this period. The market is stabilising but demand for accommodation remains very high. We have also seen a large increase in the way a rental property has to be managed from a legal point of view and this will continue into 2024, with further legislation changes that landlords will have to adhere to.

Here at Richard Kendall, we firmly believe that our ultimate strength is in our ability to personally advise and guide all our clients. The public wants to see real value in the advice and service that they are receiving, having one individual looking after the sale or rental of their home from start to finish.

Matthew Limb, Matthew Limb estate agents, Hull: 2023, that was the year that was. From a seller refusing to move out after completion, to a viewer getting locked in a toilet and us having to break the door down. An agent’s life is never a dull one.

Overall, 2023’s property market proved more resilient than many predicted with properties achieving better prices than anticipated by market commentators. The mortgage interest rate shock became entrenched through 2023, thus pricing many would-be home movers or cash- strapped buyers out of the market. This resulted in a slowdown across the region and transactions were around 15 per cent fewer than in the last more usual market of 2019.

This change in market conditions has seen an approximate five per cent reduction in property values throughout 2023 in our area, East Yorkshire. In context, this is only a small reduction in the value growth we have experienced since the pandemic.

There are indications that we have seen a peak in interest rates giving a boost to buyer confidence and the market going into 2024. Notably a higher percentage of sales through 2023 were to cash or equity rich buyers. This looks likely to remain a theme throughout 2024 together with those looking to unlock the significant equity they have built up in their present home.

Although perhaps a chilly start to the market, it should warm up throughout 2024. My overall view is that across our area, house prices will remain stable for a while. This is partly due to our area’s affordability compared to other parts of the country and a relatively low level of supply.

Many analysts predict that prices will remain stable or fall slightly throughout the year but begin to rise from the end of 2024 and so, as the saying goes, an early bird may indeed catch the worm. Whether this outlook will become a reality in 2024 will depend on wider factors including longer term mortgage rates, availability of supply and a UK general election to name but a few.

Mark Manning, Group MD Northern Estate Agencies Group inc.Manning Stainton, Ryder & Dutton and Mortimers: Throughout 2023, the housing market has once again defied the predictions of numerous experts who anticipated a downturn in prices following the noteworthy mini-budget in late 2022.

While prices have indeed experiencd a decline, recent index results suggest that the year concluded with modest adjustments, ranging between four and seven per cent, depending on the specific location within the Yorkshire region.

The resilience displayed by the property market is expected to persist into 2024. We anticipate a continued return to a state of relative normality, resembling the comparative climate of the pre-pandemic boom years. Notably, the supply of available properties has returned to 2019 levels, offering prospective buyers more options. Concurrently, the latter part of 2023 witnessed a healthy increase in the number of registered buyers.

Moreover, the competition among mortgage lenders, coupled with anticipated decreases in interest rates throughout this year, is poised to alleviate affordability challenges. If other broader economic factors remain stable, we anticipate a growth ranging from 0 per cent to four per cent in the coming year.

Patrick McCutcheon, Dacre, Son & Hartley estate agents: My maternal great grandfather was, according to family lore, an experienced sea captain plying his trade for decades out of Liverpool. But even he would have been confused by the conflicting tides that have struck the property market over the last 12 months.

High inflation and the aggressive use of interest rates by the Bank of England should have delivered a shocker of a year. So too the extraordinary levels of activity post Covid which could not possibly continue. And yet we witnessed steady levels of sales and consistent buyer demand across all sectors, with prices even nudging up slightly across the region.

Only after the summer holidays did we see a slowdown and even then I would argue that the underlying mood in mid-December was more positive than in September as news on inflation and thus hopes for a base rate reduction become more positive.

Where to for this year? Buyer demand remains good. Borrowing rates are likely to fall as lenders compete. The supply and opportunity for buyers has returned towards more normal levels. Looming election aside, I believe we will see a return to a more active market, consistent and positive sales volumes and even a little more price growth within our core Yorkshire area.

Jonathan Morgan, City living pioneer in Leeds and partner at Zenko City Living: In the context of the wider housing market, perhaps the single most significant trend will be the impact of the huge weight of capital sitting in readiness, waiting to invest in what is known as “Single Family Rental” aka SFR. This is the suburban version of build to rent, which now dominates the skylines of most of our major city centres and is starting to appear in secondary cities.

The challenge of higher interest rates along with the end of the Help-to-Buy scheme has meant that housebuilders are increasingly turning to SFR funds as a means of propping up their targets and it seems that a shift towards longer term rental is well underway.

Leeds city centre has already seen a significant shift towards institutionally-owned apartment buildings, with multiple amenities and robust professional management. The arrival of schemes such as Mustard Wharf by L and G, New York Square by Moda and Leodis Square by Dandara coincided with the extraordinary impact of the end of Covid period on the rental market which effectively meant that two cycles of demand bumped into each other.

The net effect of this was an increase in average city centre rents to unprecedented levels. Underpinning this trend is the predominance of students from overseas, for whom the traditional affordability measures are largely irrelevant but there is plenty of evidence to suggest that local professionals also have an appetite for this new way of renting.

2024 is going to be another interesting year in Leeds city centre: the key sectors are the rental market, which is the engine room of any successful urban economic centre, the continuing upturn in the delivery of Purpose Built Student Accommodation and the proliferation of fractional sales schemes such as Springwell Gardens, Sky Gardens, Axis and Phoenix, which rely on sales to distant investors.

Sadly, there is little sign of the delivery of high quality apartments or houses specifically aimed at owner occupiers, for which there is still huge pent-up demand. This remains the area of greatest opportunity and whilst the likes of 2 Great George Street by Priestley are a step in the right direction, their sales campaign has been driven towards early off-plan investor demand.

There have still only ever been a handful of sales at over £750,000 in Leeds city centre which makes absolutely no sense in the context of the wider metropolitan area, where this sort of figure variously buys a four-bed semi in Rawdon or Roundhay.

Recent sales of penthouses at 2 Great George Street for £1.3m and a new apartment listing at £1m may herald the emergence of a premium city centre market but we are a long way from the £1.95m being asked for a penthouse in the Deansgate Towers in Manchester. It is likely that average city centre rents will increase in 2024. It remains to be seen whether or not the demand for premium rental from the overseas student sector will wane.

Natalie Parks, Woolley & Parks estate agents, East Yorkshire: 2024 will undoubtedly be a challenging market place to navigate for sellers, buyers and agents. After the incredible demand seen during the ‘Covid’ period the housing market was always going to cool, however contrary to most media reports it remains stable.

I predict 2024 will have to all be about compromise, negotiation, patience and understanding. Sellers will need to be “market ready” and be prepared,alongside their agent, to go above and beyond for the right price and the same will apply for buyers.

Mortgage agreements must in place and flexibility with time scales will be key. As for agents, experience, guidance, strong relationships, the latest technology and communication will be crucial to a successful housing market in 2024. Whilst the market will be challenging, it will also be a lot calmer , a stable market where price and presentation will be paramount. I am looking forward to a more normalised pace and good old fashioned estate agency.

Nicola Spencer, Spencers estate agents, Sheffield: 2023 was a rollercoaster year, starting with a bewilderment hangover from the end of 2022 and Liz Truss’s atomic bomb mini budget. Last year in our region seemed unaffected until we got to the summertime when we really started to see a decline in interest and where people seemed to be hanging on for the perceived “bottom” of the market.

Through the fourth quarter, the market was stronger, more stable, people seemed more resilient to the idea of the interest rates remaining as they are, the utility prices coming down helped ease some cost and expenditure worries, and into 2024 we feel this steady confidence will remain.

The ambitiousness of fast climbing in the housing market has tamed, which is no bad thing, and people are wholly more sensible with their outlooks of the cost of living remaining high and therefore affordability remaining tight. 2024 looks likely to start slowly but to pick up somewhat into spring summer as the days get longer and hope returns with gusto – we are anticipating a steady year ahead, hopefully with fewer surprises than the last four years of worldwide unavoidable turbulence.

Edward Stoyle, Savills Yorkshire: 2023 was a bit of a rollercoaster of a year in the housing market, with rising interest rates and the increase in the cost of living making for a turbulent time, but the market in Yorkshire is still holding strong and there are still plenty of opportunities to sell this year for those who are realistic.

Savills is predicting the average UK house price to drop by a modest three per cent in 2024 as affordability pressures start to ease, with the expectation that the base rate will stand at 4.75 per cent by the end of the year.

Here in Yorkshire we expect prices to perform better than the national expectations, falling slightly by 2.5 per cent in 2024. This reflects the ongoing economic uncertainty and elevated interest rates. But even with that fall, house prices across the region will remain 14 per cent higher on average compared to the beginning of 2020 before the pandemic.

Looking ahead, the county’s value gap and excellent connectivity to the hubs of York, Leeds, Manchester and London, ease of access to the A1, excellent schooling and quality of life on offer means that there is more capacity for growth. Consequently, we expect Yorkshire to outperform the rest of the UK over the next five years, led by the equity driven prime market.

Savills researchers forecasting prices in Yorkshire will grow by an average of 20.2 per cent over the next five years. While the housing market appears to be past ‘peak pain’, putting your property on the market at the right price is paramount to a successful sale. Demand remains good for high quality property, especially from the downsizer market.

Tim Waring, Prime Residential, GSC Grays estate agents: With interest rates looking set to remain around the middle single digit mark, and with homeowners now accepting this is the new norm, I anticipate we will see a settled marketplace evolve over the next year. With the rate of inflation seemingly under control and hopefully continuing to fall, this bodes well for general market confidence, without the excesses of recent years driven by exceptional circumstances.

As such, pricing, presentation and pragmatism will be the watchwords for 2024. If your home has not sold after three months, the likelihood is that the price will need adjustment. However old or new, if you are selling a property that’s a little scruffy around the edges, try to do something about it beforehand as first impressions are a function of presentation.

If you have found the dream home which, unfortunately for you, everybody else wants as well, take a pragmatic stance. Put your best foot forward and offer accordingly as a good house will always sell whatever the market whether it’s good, bad or steady with the latter being my prediction for the next 12 months.

Judith Watson, Cundalls estate and land agency: The agency has branches in Pickering, Malton and Helmsley. Judith Watson says: “Interest rates have fallen and confidence in the residential property market is returning and we will see things start to pick up this year..

“Sales were pretty buoyant last year, partly because of the area we work in, which has high value properties. The lower end of the market will also pick up as buyers and sellers get used to the idea of mortgages costing more."

Tony Wright, Carter Jonas, Harrogate: I think that it is fair to say that all agents have found the market in 2023 to be tricky and challenging, influenced by the steep rise in interest and mortgage rates which damaged buyer confidence. However, in the latter part of 2023 we experienced a noticeable uplift in activity and this sentiment seems set to continue into 2024. I am optimistic that the improvements we have witnessed in the last few months of 2023 will filter through into a more buoyant 2024.

Interest rates have now topped out, creating a more competitive mortgage market, with both buyers and sellers who have put off moving by adopting a wait-and-see approach, should now start to consider that the time is right to review their options.

I foresee an early return in activity as sellers and buyers adapt to a more even balance between supply and demand. My view is that the property market in Yorkshire is very much open for business.