Yorkshire property market forecasts for 2023

It’s been quite a week for property market forecasts, which have flooded in. The consensus is that the trajectory for house prices is down, as usually happens after a sustained period of growth.Rents, however, look set to remain for now high due to supply and demand issues.Lucian Cook, Head of Residential Research at Savills, points out that while the mortgage markets have stabilised, the effect of higher interest rates on purchasing power is reflected in newly agreed sales, which he calculates were 23 per cent below the first nine months of this year.

He adds that prospective sellers already on the market have been quick to adjust their expectations, as the number of asking price changes increased by 85 per cent.

He and his team believe that the average UK house price could fall by 10 per cent over the course of 2023 but, on the basis of current interest rate forecasts, they expect those losses to be recovered by 2026 as affordability pressures gradually ease from the middle of 2024 and more buyers are brought back into the market.

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Rightmove, on the other hand, predicts an overall drop of two per cent in average asking prices over the same period.

What will house prices do next?What will house prices do next?
What will house prices do next?

Meanwhile, the December asking price index from Home.co.uk shows that the national average asking price has dropped 2.4 per cent over the past month. Yorkshire saw a 2.1 per cent drop.

However, its report shows that the supply of new instructions remains within the normal range for this time of year, which indicates that there is not a panic-driven flood of sellers, though some existing vendors in higher value homes are taking property off the market.

Home.co.uk analysts say that they expect demand to increase with the help of the recently announced nil-rate stamp duty for properties under £250,000.

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For those who are concerned by the changing situation, they predict: “Property is a go-to investment in times of high inflation. The rub, of course, is that interest rates are normally ratcheted up sky high during these periods.

“This time around, however, interest rates are remarkably low compared to the headline rate of inflation, so much so that the real mortgage rate is negative by quite a margin.

“So too is price growth for the time being but this will change and, when it does, those who bought and hung on to property during this period will benefit enormously when the counter trend finally arrives.”

However, if you are a buy-to-let investor, remember that in April next year, capital gains tax will be reduced to £6,000 and then to £3,000 in 2024.

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The latest Rightmove report shows that UK asking prices dropped by an average 2.1 per cent this month. Yorkshire recorded a 2.5 per cent fall but asking price growth in the region is still up 7.3 per cent over the past year.

Over the past two weeks the number of people contacting estate agents is up four per cent on the same period in 2019, while the number of views of homes for sale on Rightmove is up 11 per cent on last year.

Tim Bannister, Rightmove’s Director of Property Science says: “After many months of having to act extremely quickly, there will be less urgency in the market as buyers wait for the right home to become available for their needs and some sellers will hold out hoping for a price that matches their expectations.

“We could see a stand-off in the early months of 2023 between some sellers who are in no rush to drop their prices and those affordability-strapped or hesitant buyers. This will lead to homes taking longer to sell, and we could see a return to the more normal time to find a buyer of around 60 days.”

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He adds: “It’s easy to forget that having multiple bidders immediately lining up to buy your home was the exception rather than the norm in pre-pandemic years, and there will be a period of readjustment as properties take longer to find the right buyer.

“We are heading towards a more even balance between supply and demand next year but we don’t expect a surge in forced sales. This is reflected in our prediction of a relatively modest average fall of two per cent next year.”

Rents are a different matter and Zoopla reports that low stock levels are driving prices up . They are increasing fastest in the largest UK cities with student populations, including Sheffield, where they went up12.4 per cent year-on-year and Leeds up by 11 per cent. York and Hull recorded lower increases of 6.5 per cent.

Zoopla predicts that this rate of inflation will slow to four or five per cent at the end of 2023.