British food production to fall by up to 25 per cent due to climate change, report warns
More land will need to be used to grow arable crops rather than animal feed, it said.
The peer-reviewed report was published by Natural England – an arm’s length Government body - and also looked at the species and habitat impacts of the Environmental Land Management scheme, which was brought in to replace the EU’s Common Agricultural Policy post-Brexit.
It comes as the Country Land and Business Association (CLA) called for the Government to ‘reset’ its approach to the sustainable farming budget.
Yesterday, the Richmond-based organisation said bolstering the farming budget was key to kickstarting long-term growth in the rural economy and delivering on many of the government’s own environmental targets.
On the issue of food supply, the Natural England report found: “At the UK scale, there is a strong trade-off between emissions reduction and food production.
“Under the most ambitious climate change mitigation scenario food production is expected to decline by up to 25 per cent.
“A decline in food production is unavoidable under these climate change mitigation scenarios.
“Mitigation measures within the food system are thus needed to ensure that this does not result in offshoring of environmental impacts via increased food imports.
“Ambitious combinations of measures including reducing food waste, using arable land to grow crops for direct human consumption rather than livestock feed (and thus implying a dietary change), and increased productivity on remaining farmland, could fully mitigate expected reductions in food production.”
The report also looked at how land may need to be used in future, balancing food production with cutting emissions and encouraging wildlife diversity.
It said: “Finite land is under pressure to deliver (among other things) food, timber and fuel production, climate change mitigation and biodiversity conservation.
“At present the land sector (agriculture, forestry and peatlands) is a substantial greenhouse gas emitter and contributor to climate change.”
Nine different scenarios were modelled, with each looking at different land use balances and different climate mitigation measures.
They forecast to the year 2100 in five year intervals. No scenario delivered strong reductions in greenhouse gas emissions or large increases in bird populations without significant drops in food production.
Key to maintaining the land-use balance will be Government schemes such as ELMS and the Sustainable Farming Incentives.
But their implementation has not been straight forward, and farmers say a huge amount of time is spent on bureaucracy.
Further, with fertiliser inflation and a highly volatile market - in part exacerbated by climate change - farmers say they are increasingly struggling to make their operations profitable.
Victoria Vyvyan (pictured, inset) is the president of the CLA, and said: “Landowners can feed the nation and improve the environment – but they can't do it on a shoestring budget.
“Now is the time for a budget reset. Without the right economic, regulatory and political conditions, farmers will be unable to deliver on the multitude of societal demands that ultimately fall on them.
“The CLA applauds the government’s ambition to reverse the decline in nature, pave the way to a net zero society, create homes and jobs in the rural economy, clean up rivers and stimulate health and wellbeing by encouraging community engagement on our farms – with the right budget.
“Many CLA members are already well along this journey – but we need to know the government's ambition is real and not just a good soundbite.
“Achieving their aims costs money, and the Treasury must put its money where its mouth is.
“The CLA believes that ELM schemes have the potential to lead the world in creating a sustainable agriculture and environment policy, and we support the direction of travel.
“But with BPS payments disappearing, farming businesses must not face a financial cliff-edge. The new government says it wants to support farmers and boost Britain’s food security, and now is the time to put their money where their mouth is and back them to grow food and improve our environment.”