Andrew Vine: Economy and housing market facing paralysis over Europe debate

The friends who are trying to sell their house in Leeds have, to their astonishment, found themselves caught up in the debate over a possible Brexit.

Follow-up calls to people who have viewed their house keep producing the same response – they are holding off major decisions until they see what happens, as they are concerned it might affect their employment.

Their estate agent tells them that a similar story is unfolding around other properties on his books, and as the arguments over in or out grow ever more heated, potential buyers are increasingly cautious about making what is likely to be the most significant investment of their lives.

My friends have developed an appealingly dark sense of humour about becoming unwitting pawns in a game of political brinkmanship, but it is underscored by real frustration.

Suddenly, their lives are about to become more difficult. A move to a new area which would make their commutes to work far easier has been put on hold, and they are becoming resigned to not selling until after the referendum.

And even then, depending on the outcome, there is no certainty that potential buyers will press ahead.

In normal times, their house would have sold within days. It’s in a good area, on a pleasant street, immaculately maintained and within the catchment of excellent schools, which is why so much of the early interest was from couples with young children.

Exactly the same problem befell some relatives of mine who put their home in Scotland up for sale in the run-up to the independence referendum.

Uncertainty froze the market, with buyers unwilling to commit until the vote went the way of the Union.

The person who eventually bought was frank that if the SNP had got its way and Scotland had gone it alone, the likelihood of him buying would have been remote, as he was unconvinced that the country could have paid its way.

And now, if the experience of one couple on a suburban street is anything to go by, we’re seeing a similar degree of paralysis beginning to creep into the economy.

It is not just about housing. A couple of independent businesses I know are treading water until June and delaying decisions on new investment.Depending on which way the vote goes, those decisions may be delayed even further, because although not directly involved in trade with the EU, they are in the supply chains of companies that are.

The tone of the in-or-out debate is stoking anxiety, and the leading protagonists on either side do not help.

The fear factor introduced by Mr Cameron over the consequences of leaving is undoubtedly playing a part in the decisions of people not to commit to major expenditure, quite possibly as a result of talking to their employers who may be worried about losing trade with Europe.

It was always inevitable that scare tactics would be deployed, since there is such a degree of uncertainty over exactly what would happen if Britain votes to leave.

Nor does the rosy vision of a Britain freed from the shackles of EU bureaucracy and trading on a world stage do much to help a house sale, or enable companies to plan for the future, since there is equal uncertainty over how the country would disentangle itself in the event of a vote to leave.

There are, on both sides, voices to be heard that speak not to a couple trying to get on with their lives or the practical concerns of somebody running a company, but to a rarified political class.

Too much of the debate is about ideology and the internal wranglings of the Conservatives that have rumbled away in the background for the past 30 years, and crippled John Major’s premiership.

The big hitters seem especially distant from a residential street in Leeds. One the one hand, we have David Cameron with an eye on his political legacy, and on the other we have Boris Johnson with his eyes on his erstwhile school chum’s job and the adulation of the right of his party.

Independent wealth frees both men from the dilemma facing house-buyers in Leeds who very much like the look of an attractive four-bedroom house, and want their children to go to the good school a short walk away, but cannot commit because they have concerns about paying the mortgage.

Too much of the debate is forgetting the realities of life for millions of ordinary people like my friends. Worse, it is also forgetting that it is potentially people like them who have the most to lose.