2022 Nord Stream leak was more significant than thought, new research shows

A major leak of a greenhouse gas from the Nord Stream pipeline was far more significant than first realised, according to new research involving scientists from the University of Leeds.

An international team of 67 researchers, including four from Leeds’ School of Earth and Environment, say they have now revealed the true scope of the leak in 2022 – which they believe was the largest single release of methane ever recorded.

Emissions from the pipeline, which transports natural gas from Russia to Germany under the Baltic Sea, were found to be nearly double some initial estimates, with approximately 465,000 metric tons of methane released into the atmosphere – the equivalent of eight million cars driven for a year.

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Study co-author, Dr Chris Wilson, is a research scientist for the UK’s National Centre for Earth Observation (NCEO) and the School of Earth & Environment at the University of Leeds.

3D render illustration of the explosion of the Nord Stream 2 gas pipeline under the water of the Baltic Sea. Damaged pipe.3D render illustration of the explosion of the Nord Stream 2 gas pipeline under the water of the Baltic Sea. Damaged pipe.
3D render illustration of the explosion of the Nord Stream 2 gas pipeline under the water of the Baltic Sea. Damaged pipe.

Speaking on the new research, he said: “This event released a huge amount of natural gas into the atmosphere and one satellite instrument that we used was able to track a plume of very high methane concentrations over the North Sea for a number of days afterwards.

“The team here at Leeds used these observations to quantify the leaks, and our atmospheric model provided one of the vital strands of evidence for the robust estimate provided in this new study.”

In late September of 2022, a series of underwater explosions resulted in damage to the Nord Stream 1 and 2 twin pipeline systems, resulting in a leak of natural gas into the Baltic Sea.

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The first explosion occurred southeast of the Danish Island of Bornholm, in the Bornholm Basin, destroying approximately 10m of pipeline.

This was followed by multiple explosions northeast of Bornholm, destroying between 200m and 300m of pipeline.

Although the pipes were not operational at the time, both systems were filled with pressurized natural gas, predominantly made up of methane.

At the time of the explosions, the gas could be seen bubbling through to the sea’s surface above the rupture sites for around a week, creating what the researches described as “bulging mounds of foamy seawater of up to several hundreds of meters in diameter”.

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The new study, which was led by the United Nations Environment Programme, used state-of-the-art estimates of the leaks based on a range of scientific methods.

The methods combined new estimates from pipeline release models, models of the ocean and atmosphere, as well as a range of observations of the methane released into the atmosphere.

The team at the University of Leeds also used a 3D chemistry transport model called TOMCAT to track satellite-based measurements of the methane plume back to its source and produce an observation-based estimate of the leak rate from the pipelines.

The TOMCAT model uses meteorological data, such as winds and temperatures, to simulate the transportation of chemicals through the atmosphere.

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By combining data from the Leeds scientists with other sources, the international team said they were able to provide a more holistic and accurate estimate of emissions.

Previous estimates of the Nord Stream leak varied widely, taking diffrent approaches to measure the methane emitted from the leaks.

The researchers believe that by combining a number of methods, they have provided a coherent and accurate view of the emissions.

The results of the new research were published earlier this month in the journal Nature.

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Professor Martyn Chipperfield of the National Centre for Earth Observation, at the University of Leeds, also co-authored the report.

He added: "Methane is a very potent greenhouse gas and second only to carbon dioxide in its importance for causing climate change.

“Moreover, because of its relatively short atmospheric residence time, understanding and reducing its emissions will have a large benefit in limiting the extent of climate change.

“This unexpected test case has confirmed our ability to quantify methane sources from a variety of sources."

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