Donald Trump's decisions will be even more maverick after midterms drubbing: Patrick Mercer

Against Napoleon, Britain, the Nazis, and a host of lesser enemies, Russia has always understood that harsh winters are their greatest ally. It’s easier, cheaper and more effective to freeze an opponent into submission than it is to bomb him and that, of course, is what’s informing Russia’s strategy. Certainly, the capture of Ukrainian fortresses in the Donbas remain important, but the Kremlin’s strategy has shifted in line with the mercury in the thermometer.

Kyiv’s made parallel calculations and concentrated her attacks on Russian oil refineries, hitting the Kremlin’s exports and further damaging their enemy’s economy.

But there’s only one, major player left in the game who can turn the tide in President Zelensky’s favour. Many say that player should be Europe - including UK - but their bickering, widespread lawlessness and disunity means that they can never compete with a single minded USA.

The problem is that the midterm election results mean that the US is no longer single minded, no longer a United States of America. Instead, the most powerful country in the world lies at the whim of a President who has very little left to lose. The next (and probably final two years) of this Republican administration will be marked by even more maverick decisions than we’ve seen over the first half of Donald Trump’s tenure.

And so an anxious Kyiv will be watching three, key milestones before Christmas and the worst of the cold which could spell either disaster or salvation for them. The first - Mr Trump’s electoral drubbing - has passed in time, but it’s still too early to know what the full effects will be.

Undoubtedly, though, Ukraine will play second fiddle to the war in Iran the cack-handed conduct of which has already been roundly blamed by JD Vance, the vice president, for the electoral defeat. But - and it’s a big but - a resolution in Ukraine would do Mr Trump the power of good. Then ask yourself what single tactic has given him some kudos? Answer: deploying his seldom seen wife Melania to organise a ‘humanitarian’ ceasefire around the little town of Oleshky on the southern banks of the Dnipro river.

About 700 civilians had been cowering for some weeks in a shell swept village directly under Ukrainian artillery and drone attack which made a Russian advance impossible. There had been a number of attempts, but it took the First Lady’s coolly glamorous intervention to get both sides to hold their fire, and spare the battered civilians further misery.

It worked and last Wednesday - too late to affect the voting - FLOTUS brought both sides together to discuss how such suffering might be avoided in the future. In itself it’s just a minor thing, but its major importance is that all the protagonists now understand that energetic diplomacy can work.

Despite Mr Zelensky badly upsetting Mr Trump by continuing to attack Russian oil refineries, Ukraine’s president has made it quite clear that’s he’s ready for a general ceasefire using the current frontlines as a marker. Now that’s a big concession: Kyiv has always demanded a guarantee that her occupied territories must be returned before any substantive discussions could start. Conversely, Russia has said that she’s not interested in a ceasefire, the suspicion being that Moscow is hoping for a capitulation once more territory has been taken during the depths of winter’s cold.

But Mr Trump has had some success with the Kremlin by relaxing sanctions against the import of Russian diesel oil. True, there’s been little difference in the price of petrol, but an eye-catching mini ceasefire has just succeeded, all the parties have got used to the idea and suddenly there’s a smidgen of hope that a solution is possible.

Almost immediately the victorious Democrats threatened to scrap Trump’s diesel deal whilst forgetting the squeals that will cause in Europe. Remember, despite the unflinching stand that UK and others supposedly took, Mr Putin’s oil is now flowing just as darkly into our refineries as it is into the USA’s. What price principle?

The next milestones are a meeting announced by US envoy Steve Witkoff between Russia, the US and Ukraine in Abu Dhabi in a few days’ time. Then, should progress be made there or glitches needed to be overcome, the G20 will be gathering at one of Mr Trump’s golf courses near Miami in mid December. Using one of the President’s own properties may well cause Democrats to complain, but they’ll probably be too busy objecting to Mr Trump’s idea that Mr Putin should attend!

But, depressingly, a crisis has suddenly erupted in Kyiv which could ruin all the diplomacy. Last Wednesday Ukraine’s National Anti-Corruption agencies mounted over 100 raids on police, the Prosecutor General’s Office and the Security Service of Ukraine (SBU) searching for evidence of fraud and organised criminal activity. A senior officer is said to have pulled a pistol before SBU troops arrived and forcibly stopped the investigation.

This isn’t the first violence between Zelensky’s officers, but it’s the most serious and comes as Mr Trump’s position has been upturned, Mr Putin has glimpsed peace and there are real opportunities for the three presidents to meet and talk hard.

Patrick Mercer is a former Conservative MP for Newark and Army Colonel.