For any settlement in Ukraine, the Russians have to be ready to compromise but there’s vanishingly little chance of that - Patrick Mercer
“Europe looks lost trying to convince the US president to change. But he will not change. President Trump loves who he is.” President Zelensky’s words positively lashed the audience when he spoke at the World Economic Forum at Davos a few days ago. No one thought he’d attend, but someone (a Whitehouse denizen?) summoned him and from his very first sentence everyone knew they were in for some hard truths.
Verbal shrapnel sprayed everywhere - mainly at the Euromob - but even Mr Trump got some. Shamefaced, thoroughly told off, the normal reaction would be to slink off, but no - when the hero of the hour wiped the last bit of angry foam from his lips, they all stood up and - incomprehensibly - clapped the man who’d just damned the lot of them.
Some of the press castigated Mr Zelensky, but it’s hard to say he’s wrong. Remember, US aid has pretty well dried up, the Coalition of the Willing is just a dream, whilst Russia’s drone and missile campaign against Ukraine’s power stations is very effective.
Certainly, Kiev is striking back, but President Zelensky left a dark and frosty Kiev from where large parts of the population have fled in search of somewhere warm with clean water.
Battle casualties are one thing, drones and rockets probably serve to harden the people’s resolve, but gnawing, numbing cold and murky darkness erode morale and the spirit of resistance.
It can’t be denied, this cynical assault by the Kremlin is proving to be a great, political persuader.
So imagine how pleased Volodymyr Zelensky must have been when he arrived in Davos only to find the whole gang fixated on the Greenland crisis.
At least, the audience thought it was Greenland despite Mr Trump calling it ‘Iceland’ a couple of times.
That debate apparently swamped every other subject. The Donald ruled out the use of force: “I don’t have to use force. I don’t want to use force. I won’t use force”, before seeming to threaten economic and security consequences for Europe if the United States wasn’t allowed to purchase the island: then, typically, he reversed course just hours later.
The latest plan looks like it might be a copy of the British sovereign base model in Cyprus. The US would own plots of land in Greenland upon which troops and kit could be based, but all this talk of Arctic matters simply enraged Mr Zelensky.
Understandably, anything that distracted resources and attention from Kiev’s needs now that Uncle Sam is no longer involved caused Ukraine’s President to deliver another broadside, “Europe must learn how to defend itself. Sending 14 or 40 soldiers to Greenland, what is that meant to achieve? What message does that send to Putin? To China? And perhaps most importantly, what message does it send to Denmark?"
There were matters closer to home for Ukraine, though: “We are in the last mile [of negotiations]. It is very difficult…the Russians have to be ready for compromises," said Zelensky. Now that’s fine until two things are born in mind.
First, a scrunched up A4 map of Ukraine was found in a bin which had scrawled on it that country’s ‘new boundaries’. It showed the Donbas being surrendered, a 300km demilitarised zone sprawling across the belly of the land with just a band of sovereign Ukraine centred around the new capital of Lvov way over to the west.
Now, this was probably just a silly doodle to which no importance should be attached, whereas President Zelensky’s latter point is stone cold serious. He’s right, for any settlement the Russians have to be ready to compromise - and there’s vanishingly little chance of that.
There are many whispers and rumours about what the vital deal between Washington and Kiev looks like. No one quite knows what shape US ‘security guarantees’ will take once peace is a reality; they’ll certainly need to be intimidating for Russia, but they depend upon compromise from Ukraine as well as Moscow.
Key to any deal are the Donetsk and Lugansk People’s Republics which are already largely in Russian hands, but the remnants of which contain a powerful belt of urban fortresses which Russia does not want to have to assault.
On paper, handing them over without further bloodshed looks pragmatic and simple, but these are central to the whole of Ukraine’s military philosophy.
They’ve already cost hundreds of thousands of casualties, they’re carefully prepared and are seen as the anvil upon which further Russian assaults can be beaten.
To surrender them would be seen as a terrible betrayal by many grieving relatives and most generals sturdily oppose such a move.
Yet, well informed sources are saying that it’s these very stretches of well dug-in and provisioned defences which the Americans are trying to put pressure on Kiev to hand over to the Kremlin.
Patrick Mercer is a former MP for Newark and Army Colonel.